AI · resolved market
Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6819aacbd68a7e32103345179670f24b9b0f5420673a5f28cd1f04c775884a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 3,310$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,540$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…89b4backed No | 66c | 1,424$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.04 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,414$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 7c | 1,322$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 671.41$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.81 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 11c | 599.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 505.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…2609backed No | 42c | 355.46$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.72 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…621ebacked No | 64c | 328.8$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 6c | 328$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d53…b56ebacked Yes | 44c | 315.36$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 6c | 305$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 7c | 305$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 12c | 284.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 284.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…fbe0backed Yes | 6c | 279$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…e0c5backed Yes | 11c | 264$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…af79backed Yes | 6c | 262$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 12c | 252.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 6c | 234$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 6c | 231$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 6c | 212$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 201.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28b…60f0backed Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed Yes | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 7c | 178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…b486backed Yes | 6c | 177$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed Yes | 18c | 176.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…cdc6backed Yes | 40c | 173.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 6c | 172$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 60c | 156$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed No | 35c | 152.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.3 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c7…0854backed Yes | 79c | 126.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…da42backed No | 80c | 125.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…54e4backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 116$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 60c | 102.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…24f8backed Yes | 36c | 83.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 39c | 81.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 27c | 66.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…23d9backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…1e00backed Yes | 56c | 53.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 46c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…a62fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 72c | 41.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…372dbacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed No | 41c | 34.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f59…4382backed No | 55c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 68c | 23.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31?this page
- Will Atlas have an iOS app live by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.