NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d2b5d06a5b0a6292065bd3f18a4c8e499bfd75d7fa4ebec0b7cdd992ed2197
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 127,806$62,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,628.45 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 51c | 40,102$20,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,452.04 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 52c | 35,530$18,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,475.6 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 24,930$12,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,714.1 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Under | 48c | 18,195$8,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,461.48 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 53c | 15,291$8,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,151.68 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Over | 51c | 15,119$7,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,764.75 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 48c | 13,603$6,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,109.59 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 10,831$5,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,632.12 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Over | 52c | 6,470$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.4 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 5,634$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.27 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Over | 52c | 5,345$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.27 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 49c | 5,302$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702.38 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 2,452$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.21 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under | 48c | 1,658$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$862 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 51c | 1,522$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.77 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 51c | 1,468$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.59 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Under | 48c | 872.31$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 52c | 770$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.4 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Over | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 52c | 538.62$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.08 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 51c | 526.16$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.55 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Over | 51c | 500.22$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.53 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 52c | 450$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Over | 53c | 339.62$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 50c | 302.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.42 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 255.22$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.1 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Over | 52c | 236.54$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Over | 50c | 221.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 53c | 211.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…55f1backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…051fbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb0…d484backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9b…5722backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 47c | 148$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Under | 49c | 124.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 49c | 111.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Under | 50c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 48c | 64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 51c | 60.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…1984backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…4891backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe930…99aebacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 47cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…b22bbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722d…17fbbacked Under | 49c | 35.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 52c | 32.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…c3b9backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416a…00a1backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Over | 53c | 26.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 52c | 24.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 114 | 50%57 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa088…9972backed Over | 52c | 23.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75e…bc00backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Commanders won
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.