NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x188674a39b135239eac264600ae78732c3c1a5f11e35d7bf7378f18c32354cd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 57c | 17,726$10,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,073.01 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 43c | 9,778$4,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,573.64 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 5,380$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.1 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 2,500$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Over | 56c | 1,415$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.51 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…e5b5backed Over | 57c | 1,000$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 991.06$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.9 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 43c | 988.61$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.7 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…0688backed Under | 46c | 960.24$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 56c | 846.25$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.9 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c19…3ec0backed Over | 56c | 680$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…72cfbacked Under | 44c | 680$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c8…8272backed Under | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…1fb3backed Under | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 56c | 392.23$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 56c | 312.5$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 43c | 180.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 148$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8984…8af8backed Over | 55c | 54.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Under | 44c | 49.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…42c1backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Commanders won
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.