NFL · resolved market
Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3926a979f814ed03fa39ec5287a2c04ba993ded6879a69c28712605a64a06eed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Chiefs | 43c | 100,000$43,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57,000 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Commanders | 57c | 99,988$56,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,992.83 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chiefs | 44c | 8,179$3,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,558.25 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Commanders | 56c | 6,108$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420.26 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed Commanders | 55c | 2,180$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.8 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Chiefs | 46c | 2,100$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Commanders | 56c | 1,946$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.99 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Chiefs | 45c | 1,902$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.61 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Commanders | 54c | 1,617$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.28 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Commanders | 50c | 1,061$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.52 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Chiefs | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Chiefs | 46c | 916.78$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.47 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Commanders | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Chiefs | 50c | 399.48$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Chiefs | 47c | 380$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Commanders | 53c | 368.3$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Commanders | 56c | 269.21$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.76 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Commanders | 54c | 229.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Chiefs | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Chiefs | 45c | 204.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Chiefs | 50c | 202.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.73 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Commanders | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1498…a10bbacked Commanders | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Commanders | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Commanders | 52c | 138.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Commanders | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Chiefs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Commanders | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Commanders | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…7a07backed Commanders | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Commanders | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Commanders | 49c | 63.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Chiefs | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…a2e2backed Commanders | 55c | 40.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa116…ba06backed Commanders | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Commanders | 52c | 27.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chiefs (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)Commanders won
- 1H Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)Commanders won
- Commanders vs. ChiefsChiefs won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Chiefs: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)Chiefs won
- Spread: Chiefs (-12.5)Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.