NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e92fa82b658e01a4f07d1c9d537ed66a1da4ebe45d3d41118f28395dd92bf82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $414,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $415,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 50c | 241,223$120,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,462.45 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6b14backed 49ers | 50c | 200,000$100,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,000 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed 49ers | 48c | 112,000$53,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,719.92 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Texans | 53c | 82,451$43,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,751.97 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed 49ers | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,800 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Texans | 51c | 19,722$10,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,656.68 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Texans | 51c | 16,397$8,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,995.89 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 49ers | 50c | 12,500$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,250 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed 49ers | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 46c | 9,577$4,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,364.83 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texans | 56c | 9,382$5,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,094.15 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Texans | 55c | 9,015$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,015.44 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers | 47c | 8,500$3,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,995 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa447…cc98backed 49ers | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed 49ers | 44c | 1,812$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.95 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers | 50c | 1,782$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.94 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…1a28backed 49ers | 49c | 1,126$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bf…15bdbacked 49ers | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked 49ers | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde5…32b5backed Texans | 51c | 900$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Texans | 49c | 549.19$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.17 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…6b0bbacked 49ers | 48c | 499.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…558cbacked 49ers | 52c | 384.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 162 | 75.3%122 W · 40 L | +17.3wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Texans | 49c | 342.88$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked 49ers | 45c | 311.11$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Texans | 53c | 290$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…4cd0backed Texans | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed 49ers | 47c | 256.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Texans | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…79efbacked 49ers | 48c | 240$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ae…0268backed 49ers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed 49ers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed 49ers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked 49ers | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7647…9f44backed 49ers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…abe4backed Texans | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Texans | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…7666backed 49ers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15f…98f9backed 49ers | 46c | 170$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Texans | 48c | 160.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Texans | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed 49ers | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Texans | 61c | 138.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Texans | 53c | 123.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked Texans | 53c | 107.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Texans | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…73fdbacked Texans | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked 49ers | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…bf79backed Texans | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…ab9dbacked Texans | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Texans | 50c | 91.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed 49ers | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Texans | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked 49ers | 40c | 68.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…4f7cbacked 49ers | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked 49ers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Texans | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe318…3506backed 49ers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked 49ers | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…8e11backed 49ers | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked 49ers | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Texans | 50c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…9e3bbacked Texans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb05a…1129backed 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…3d3ebacked Texans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-2.5)this page
- 49ers vs. TexansTexans won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 41.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.