NFL · resolved market
49ers vs. Texans: O/U 41.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c5a8410a842577ff43ef135fb18fd39f43e294559853d92b1724b8b1402b74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 53c | 60,000$31,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,773.92 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 47c | 20,012$9,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,518.2 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,600 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 16,982$8,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,927.26 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Over | 53c | 15,133$8,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,020.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Under | 47c | 11,937$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,326.59 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 47c | 7,146$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,777.24 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 51c | 5,859$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.94 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Over | 52c | 3,200$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 47c | 2,895$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.15 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 52c | 2,714$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.01 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Under | 48c | 2,496$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.18 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 50c | 2,138$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.84 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -8.5wins | -0.29per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,046$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.95 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 49c | 1,712$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.83 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 52c | 1,471$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.52 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 53c | 1,110$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.35 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 49c | 1,047$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.97 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 51c | 630.84$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.73 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…f04bbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 51cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 49c | 237.07$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 106.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…a903backed Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…de85backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Under | 48c | 55.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…ef82backed Under | 52c | 44.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 48c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 41.5this page
- 49ers vs. TexansTexans won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-2.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.