NFL · resolved market
Spread: Texans (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x763e0eadf82f813254fddfa437395e3ffdd32fd505eaa8b9ee04a2af4dee2cb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texansof Texans, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed 49ers | 49c | 28,343$13,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,953.56 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed Texans | 51c | 20,494$10,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,030.93 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +7.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed 49ers | 47c | 13,385$6,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,282.74 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Texans | 50c | 6,488$3,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,222.46 | 335 | 53.4%179 W · 156 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed 49ers | 47c | 3,830$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked 49ers | 47c | 3,734$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked 49ers | 48c | 2,580$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.81 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked 49ers | 47c | 1,880$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.6 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Texans | 54c | 1,584$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.81 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed 49ers | 48c | 1,253$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.78 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Texans | 50c | 1,139$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.96 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked 49ers | 47c | 1,131$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.72 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers | 47c | 965.89$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.97 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked 49ers | 47c | 852$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.44 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Texans | 54c | 785.19$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.19 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed 49ers | 45c | 560.87$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.39 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed 49ers | 47c | 404.26$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Texans | 52c | 360.69$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.38 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed 49ers | 47c | 329.62$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.53 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…ac13backed 49ers | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked 49ers | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed 49ers | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Texans | 53c | 199.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed 49ers | 48c | 199.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed 49ers | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6c…3bfebacked 49ers | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed 49ers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…d08abacked 49ers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…9726backed 49ers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Texans | 56c | 93.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed 49ers | 47c | 61.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Texans | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed 49ers | 47c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Texans | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked 49ers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Texans | 51c | 42.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 300 | 43.7%131 W · 169 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed 49ers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Texans | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Texans | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked 49ers | 46c | 36.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed 49ers | 46c | 32.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked 49ers | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed 49ers | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Texans | 52c | 28.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texans (-1.5)this page
- 49ers vs. TexansTexans won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 40.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 41.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 42.5Under won
- 49ers vs. Texans: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: 49ers (-1.5)Texans won
- Spread: Texans (-2.5)Texans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.