Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55a3eea21d32e656badd4eed1e4e17f890a16c29219a216ab8780f437b86c65d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $194,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $175,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,759$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.56 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 15c | 10,525$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.06 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 8c | 8,660$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.56 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…b66fbacked Yes | 8c | 7,550$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 18c | 6,387$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,145.04 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…b87dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,997$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.07 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 4c | 4,696$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.16 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 23c | 3,083$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.04 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 12c | 3,007$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.58 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes | 22c | 2,425$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.79 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 1c | 2,160$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12df…6a3dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,943$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,637$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…51e0backed Yes | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ee…04c2backed Yes | 26c | 1,422$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 7c | 1,273$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,212$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 14c | 1,138$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.84 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,050$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf249…d47abacked Yes | 16c | 1,034$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 77c | 1,016$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…0ac6backed Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…fe61backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 2c | 967.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 6c | 872.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…9667backed Yes | 2c | 827.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…d142backed Yes | 2c | 814.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 7c | 801.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 75c | 685.04$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…a3cebacked Yes | 2c | 540.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 34c | 524.21$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.23 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4e…d0c6backed Yes | 23c | 521.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb415…50e4backed Yes | 15c | 455.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 69c | 434.83$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed Yes | 4c | 305.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 71c | 283.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 28c | 265.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7647…9f44backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +116.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa254…8d57backed Yes | 18c | 186.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0419…a533backed Yes | 30c | 173.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…0b73backed Yes | 11c | 158.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked Yes | 18c | 157.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked No | 79c | 152.65$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…9bf2backed Yes | 20c | 150.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfc…f414backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…8fa2backed Yes | 16c | 140.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9026…8df5backed Yes | 15c | 135.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…94b3backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 32c | 117.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 29c | 112.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 29c | 112.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…a84abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked No | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10b…9c56backed No | 77c | 53.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 30c | 47.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…db3dbacked No | 73c | 45.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7185…5120backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…5c4abacked No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…5040backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…b58dbacked No | 77c | 34.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 58cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…1a26backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 90 | 63.3%57 W · 33 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…ac29backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3205…cc50backed No | 71c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…f976backed No | 69c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…bbb3backed No | 70c | 20.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed No | 77c | 15.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.