Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99cd635b152b8dcb7b244bd03c253d530766a8b995a73bfa3d241d62b26fe51f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 3c | 9,444$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.66 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…cc11backed Yes | 9c | 7,181$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.85 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +143.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,584$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,035$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 2c | 3,612$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…4347backed Yes | 1c | 3,552$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…7a89backed Yes | 5c | 3,200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4282…3455backed Yes | 1c | 2,186$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…8bbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,043$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 5c | 2,028$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,620$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,046$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…9667backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 4c | 1,020$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 4c | 999.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 6c | 907.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 6c | 813.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 6c | 700$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…d142backed Yes | 3c | 685.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 8c | 559.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…a577backed Yes | 9c | 549$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…e44ebacked Yes | 7c | 541.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 483.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d0…aeb1backed Yes | 5c | 433.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…0b73backed Yes | 5c | 306.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 16c | 197$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.