Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe50fa0500a43339c70b4bef5517f186f84e0d5c99e844d2e3b6f85ce848d7689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $143,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,885$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.64 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 9c | 10,113$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.4 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 7,004$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.03 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 6c | 6,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 1c | 4,975$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b2…b87dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,087$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbf…1585backed Yes | 7c | 2,571$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 14c | 2,495$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.41 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 13c | 2,242$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 6c | 1,805$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…23f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,566$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f11…15b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,091$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…d142backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…9667backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 7c | 881.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 725$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…f8e8backed Yes | 13c | 725$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed Yes | 12c | 627.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 4c | 555$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…cf8abacked Yes | 4c | 522.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 5c | 486.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…f2bebacked Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…0b73backed Yes | 8c | 366.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 7c | 293.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 21c | 282.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 259.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 75c | 210$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a1…c79dbacked Yes | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1164…01d3backed Yes | 10c | 207.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…ad2bbacked Yes | 12c | 111.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…895dbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…8fa2backed Yes | 15c | 74.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.