Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41abe61f59a42f9112c356fd0a16497f6c4dd56f85e216e064a180c58e608d39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 2c | 10,448$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.12 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 5c | 8,457$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.48 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 7,938$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.1 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,041$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 3c | 6,196$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.23 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 5c | 5,999$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.94 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 5c | 5,465$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,418$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 3c | 3,282$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 4c | 2,137$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 16c | 1,891$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.36 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed Yes | 3c | 1,723$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,654$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af5…d57abacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,363$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,313$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,204$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,042$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffe…b822backed Yes | 2c | 1,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 15c | 830.33$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.95 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 798.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a9…0d8bbacked Yes | 4c | 762.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…4b4bbacked Yes | 3c | 641.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe616…a30abacked Yes | 4c | 589.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 76c | 249.87$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5355…db3dbacked Yes | 12c | 246.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed Yes | 13c | 200.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…27abbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…bbb3backed Yes | 24c | 82.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…1ed5backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked Yes | 16c | 67.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.