Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57a663ee08135e5af5cb8bfd5f51e37e505742a833e23413a075f0aa6336be37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 17c | 1,711$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.64 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 76c | 1,157$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.09 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 76c | 966.22$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 65c | 634.45$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.29 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 68c | 535.12$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…152cbacked No | 23c | 520.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41d6…01f9backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed Yes | 69c | 380$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…5506backed No | 22c | 333.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 25c | 243.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…accbbacked Yes | 75c | 238.95$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…7a89backed Yes | 69c | 232$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 69c | 223.32$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…2842backed No | 8c | 215.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 148 | 3.4%5 W · 143 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…c614backed No | 16c | 210.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked No | 37c | 202.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed No | 21c | 183.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…e4edbacked No | 19c | 147.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4615…5ccbbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +78%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 19c | 99.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 66.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4793…bbedbacked No | 20c | 59.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…4ae8backed Yes | 62c | 48.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 70c | 42.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…1ed5backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…24dcbacked Yes | 67c | 29.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…fe7bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.