Mikel Merino: 1+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f6f06d08dfc9615aa8e06e865c0e5a47838aeb81bd03925951cd678484e2314

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,919 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7138…8c89backed Yes	15c	3,042$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.58	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e0…65b7backed Yes	1c	1,977$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.84	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4665…23a8backed Yes	9c	1,444$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	62	19.4%12 W · 50 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x711d…c1afbacked Yes	14c	1,397$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.61	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92a2…dfd7backed Yes	17c	1,075$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+71%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	53	56.6%30 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef84…6872backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	137	5.1%7 W · 130 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	2cpaid	+94.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes	17c	999.99$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	144	40.3%58 W · 86 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0459…437fbacked Yes	20c	987.89$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	76	27.6%21 W · 55 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…17e4backed Yes	15c	982.75$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	+4.9wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes	16c	756.9$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.07	3,213	47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	79c	615.49$487 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.37	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1db1…35a9backed Yes	17c	600$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes	15c	599.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	130	45.4%59 W · 71 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf536…e40cbacked Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	156	16%25 W · 131 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Yes	15c	449.78$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.13	3,077	47%1,447 W · 1,630 L	-11.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25d4…1b99backed Yes	25c	349.44$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.25	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	79c	304.29$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.83	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a5…d3b0backed Yes	17c	299.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+2.7wins	+0.21per pick	18cpaid	+112.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f59…fb9dbacked Yes	14c	292.86$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68d3…55b0backed Yes	14c	285.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d2…7402backed Yes	19c	242.74$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.12	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	11c	236.21$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.46	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	16c	231.2$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	5c	219.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9feb…3022backed Yes	19c	210.74$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	+373.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13f7…85d5backed Yes	17c	200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	298	13.8%41 W · 257 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b5…d37bbacked Yes	15c	192$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	117	54.7%64 W · 53 L	+9.2wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No	71c	180.58$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.52	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	11c	177.7$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.29	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe05…b5a5backed Yes	17c	176.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f5a…42c4backed Yes	14c	169.57$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b9…5a25backed Yes	33c	152.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	54	40.7%22 W · 32 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+16%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xceff…3638backed Yes	20c	151.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7647…9f44backed Yes	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	38cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66bb…cd52backed Yes	17c	147.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	331	23.6%78 W · 253 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Yes	16c	139.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc151…99e5backed Yes	8c	130$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5123…0278backed Yes	16c	121.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	31cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x213d…eda5backed Yes	14c	110$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6da…6f5dbacked Yes	14c	107.14$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ea…f3a4backed Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	83	30.1%25 W · 58 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x449e…454abacked Yes	15c	100.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	46cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc99c…62aebacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	279	40.5%113 W · 166 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa95…6ac7backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	45	48.9%22 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x826f…c0b4backed Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94f8…cb13backed Yes	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	73c	89.88$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.83	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83a7…74e1backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc11b…a213backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-6.8wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d2d…2be7backed No	75c	61.27$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.24	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+5.0wins	+0.12per pick	40cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd186…ed6ebacked No	76c	60.57$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.65	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	70cpaid	-44%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3e76…37acbacked Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4014…0aa5backed Yes	17c	60$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Yes	24c	59.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	143	44.8%64 W · 79 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No	79c	58.61$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.05	177	60.5%107 W · 70 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0a…0045backed Yes	19c	57.44$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcc…c57dbacked Yes	34c	51.75$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf341…9bd8backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	164	54.3%89 W · 75 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	68c	49.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.2	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…9845backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	78	5.1%4 W · 74 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed No	68c	22.65$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.25	855	50.6%433 W · 422 L	+54.8wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4738…e64abacked No	69c	19.48$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Mikel Merino: 1+ goalsthis page
Alex Baena: 1+ assistsNo won
Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
Alex Baena: 2+ goalsNo won
Alex Baena: 2+ shotsNo won
Alex Baena: 3+ shotsNo won
Alex Baena: 4+ shotsNo won
Alex Baena: 5+ shotsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assistsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goalsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assistsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goalsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on targetNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shotsNo won
Cucurella: 1+ shotsYes won
Cucurella: 1+ shots on targetNo won
Cucurella: 2+ shotsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
Dani Olmo: 2+ goalsNo won
Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsYes won
Dani Olmo: 4+ shotsNo won
David Raya: 2+ savesNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ assistsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ goalsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 4+ shotsNo won
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assistsNo won
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goalsNo won
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assistsNo won
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
Gavi Paez: 1+ goalsNo won
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
Juan Musso: 2+ savesNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 2+ shotsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 4+ shotsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsYes won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ shotsYes won
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shotsYes won
Lamine Yamal: 4+ shotsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mikel Merino: 1+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event