Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe52a5023abecb46bfee493ca5a73fce34c3f48404f394279f1d7c81fb20b36f1

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,480

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,457 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7138…8c89backed No	52c	3,694$1,931 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,762.97	1,702	36.7%625 W · 1,077 L	-31.2wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f75…6c7ebacked Yes	50c	1,388$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4940…8204backed Yes	45c	1,250$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.5	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked No	48c	1,025$497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$528	1,475	44.9%663 W · 812 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Yes	44c	1,000$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.02	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed Yes	51c	750$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.5	232	51.7%120 W · 112 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf464…5076backed No	55c	606.09$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.74	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374e…87c9backed Yes	54c	500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	185	50.3%93 W · 92 L	+12.5wins	+0.07per pick	44cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed No	56c	480.51$269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.42	366	34.4%126 W · 240 L	-24.4wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No	55c	478.47$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.58	89	30.3%27 W · 62 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+43.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7af0…fdf5backed Yes	48c	415.97$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	63%17 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Yes	47c	402.16$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.02	1,135	40.2%456 W · 679 L	+5.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes	50c	388.25$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.39	62	37.1%23 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed No	48c	335$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.2	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No	53c	331.35$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.75	3,286	49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L	+6.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70ef…0cdebacked No	56c	300$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	49cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	51c	298.13$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed No	58c	284.99$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.11	462	30.1%139 W · 323 L	-13.8wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a5…6f1fbacked No	49c	257.3$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.22	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1044…d67abacked Yes	45c	251$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.95	698	26.1%182 W · 516 L	-21.7wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x095b…25cabacked Yes	44c	211.36$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9692…7d0fbacked Yes	45c	206.67$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a2b…2030backed Yes	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	116	47.4%55 W · 61 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cdf…f30abacked Yes	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Yes	44c	170.45$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+51.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	55c	140.07$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.34	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed8e…e61bbacked Yes	49c	132.65$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked No	56c	115$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.6	630	35.7%225 W · 405 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	47c	107.48$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	277	29.2%81 W · 196 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b8…3f4ebacked Yes	44c	82.75$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.41	61	62.3%38 W · 23 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No	55c	80.24$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.11	163	36.2%59 W · 104 L	-9.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2889…5922backed Yes	46c	72.3$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.39	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	+57.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x751f…e4ddbacked No	54c	70.58$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.76	879	38.6%339 W · 540 L	+8.3wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e79…9076backed Yes	49c	63.27$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	413	39%161 W · 252 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	52c	60.66$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.23	2,796	56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L	-9.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Yes	45c	60$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…05b8backed Yes	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab56…e635backed Yes	44c	56.82$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	160	52.5%84 W · 76 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes	47c	54.3$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.79	456	27.9%127 W · 329 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	+6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes	47c	49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.03	585	30.9%181 W · 404 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa034…f196backed Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No	52c	45$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.45	454	72.9%331 W · 123 L	+18.8wins	+0.04per pick	69cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e24…ec07backed No	55c	42$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	403	52.1%210 W · 193 L	+16.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xceab…dce7backed Yes	49c	42$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	544	50.6%275 W · 269 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378f…a862backed Yes	48c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	329	43.8%144 W · 185 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	51c	37.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f5…d7c4backed No	51c	31.11$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.28	70	67.1%47 W · 23 L	+5.3wins	+0.08per pick	60cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2fa…8755backed Yes	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes	41c	29.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	90	64.4%58 W · 32 L	+11.7wins	+0.13per pick	51cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0268…28b9backed Yes	51c	26.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaba…a787backed No	57c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.75	158	57.6%91 W · 67 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes	48c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	337	29.1%98 W · 239 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa89a…aa35backed Yes	45c	22.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2114…6270backed No	56c	22.35$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.83	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	52cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b2…4ae0backed No	56c	22.3$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	40cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f3…a328backed No	56c	22.3$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	60cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb5b…84c8backed No	56c	22.3$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.81	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x333f…3cd6backed No	51c	21.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.45	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.33per pick	33cpaid	+51%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed No	57c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.03	282	57.1%161 W · 121 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce0…df67backed No	56c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	75	52%39 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb3…ca8bbacked No	56c	21$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.24	255	49%125 W · 130 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe027…ce6cbacked No	50c	20.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.25	106	55.7%59 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e8…2c0ebacked No	59c	20.42$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.37	141	19.9%28 W · 113 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e3…71cfbacked No	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	54	59.3%32 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed No	58c	18$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.53	457	40.3%184 W · 273 L	-28.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Julián Álvarez: 2+ shotsthis page
Alex Baena: 1+ assistsNo won
Alex Baena: 1+ goalsNo won
Alex Baena: 1+ shotsYes won
Alex Baena: 2+ goalsNo won
Alex Baena: 2+ shotsNo won
Alex Baena: 3+ shotsNo won
Alex Baena: 4+ shotsNo won
Alex Baena: 5+ shotsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assistsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goalsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shotsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assistsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goalsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shotsNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on targetNo won
Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shotsNo won
Cucurella: 1+ shotsYes won
Cucurella: 1+ shots on targetNo won
Cucurella: 2+ shotsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ assistsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ goalsNo won
Dani Olmo: 1+ shotsYes won
Dani Olmo: 2+ assistsNo won
Dani Olmo: 2+ goalsNo won
Dani Olmo: 2+ shotsYes won
Dani Olmo: 4+ shotsNo won
David Raya: 2+ savesNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ assistsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ goalsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 1+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ assistsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ goalsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 2+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 3+ shotsNo won
Enzo Fernández: 4+ shotsNo won
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assistsNo won
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goalsNo won
Ferrán Torres: 1+ assistsNo won
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goalsNo won
Gavi Paez: 1+ goalsNo won
Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goalsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ assistsNo won
Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goalsNo won
Juan Musso: 2+ savesNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assistsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shotsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 2+ goalsNo won
Julián Álvarez: 4+ shotsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assistsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ shotsYes won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assistsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 2+ shotsYes won
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goalsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 3+ shotsYes won
Lamine Yamal: 4+ shotsNo won
Lamine Yamal: 5+ shotsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event