TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Alex Baena: 2+ shots

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,987

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,000 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca7c…e994backed No62c2,918$1,812 inWon+$1,106.237350.1%187 W · 186 L+45.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9cf7…767cbacked Yes38c2,470$933 inLost-$932.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed No51c1,287$656 inWon+$630.634746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Yes49c1,041$510 inLost-$510450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Yes49c909.79$445 inLost-$445.11,70236.7%625 W · 1,077 L-31.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2e…8904backed Yes38c532.26$200 inLost-$2002740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x374e…87c9backed Yes49c507.28$248 inLost-$248.3218550.3%93 W · 92 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+26.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e20…dd8abacked No51c464.03$237 inWon+$227.381681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.8wins+0.30per pick51cpaid+127.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x70ef…0cdebacked No51c449.02$229 inWon+$220.023455.9%19 W · 15 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb81c…cb63backed No51c384.51$196 inWon+$188.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe247…edf1backed Yes36c279.61$100 inLost-$100966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+53%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Yes39c205.13$80 inLost-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f0…aeb6backed No52c203$106 inWon+$97.441457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No63c194$122 inWon+$72.062,57646.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L+35.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No63c142.11$90 inWon+$52.462,79656.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L-9.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Yes48c82.07$40 inLost-$39.542,23149.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L-21.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c54.28$26 inLost-$26.058,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No52c44.28$23 inWon+$21.2541231.6%130 W · 282 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94ec…1a4bbacked No65c31.01$20 inWon+$10.826366.7%42 W · 21 L+12.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+52.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No65c30$20 inWon+$10.545472.9%331 W · 123 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc155…e36bbacked No65c30$20 inWon+$10.578559.7%469 W · 316 L+25.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bde…b181backed No51c20$10 inWon+$9.81931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-28.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35f5…d7c4backed No62c18.96$12 inWon+$7.147067.1%47 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde72…e386backed Yes56c18.18$10 inLost-$10.182254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 106. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.