AI · resolved market
Tech Release Parlay
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68578e8f7c59ff6d28948db862f307371cfed61a252c1360bf66a3a49e1b4e1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,341$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.96 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 23c | 1,301$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.88 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Yes | 41c | 1,142$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.11 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 15c | 589.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 19c | 588.59$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.43 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 560.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 478.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 76c | 330.71$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9a…c495backed Yes | 11c | 300.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 30c | 300$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2b…3ababacked Yes | 35c | 283.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…8bdebacked Yes | 21c | 277.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 243.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 30c | 206.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 184.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked Yes | 13c | 178.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 17c | 136.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fe…4716backed Yes | 29c | 128.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 78c | 112$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 30c | 106.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 69c | 102.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 61c | 98.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8a…2be8backed Yes | 24c | 89.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 27c | 88.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 20c | 88.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 71c | 84.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…f940backed Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked No | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed No | 71c | 79.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…f64ebacked Yes | 31c | 73.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 77c | 72.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 22c | 68.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…c61fbacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 31c | 58.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 65c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed No | 79c | 53.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x957d…61e9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…9875backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…dfefbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 70c | 21.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked No | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.