AI · resolved market
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa46ef8ee678911f38a4b58abbdb8cf5211b44632a637f446fc5da144402a0011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 17c | 3,668$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 36c | 3,661$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.04 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed No | 71c | 1,707$1,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 1,224$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xface…0572backed Yes | 41c | 1,058$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 71c | 1,039$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 3c | 951.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 937.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 25c | 676.19$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 17c | 576.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 505.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 501.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 17c | 416.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2627…b092backed Yes | 7c | 400.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 16c | 308.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 74c | 300$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked Yes | 21c | 243$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 74c | 234$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 27c | 232.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…ee2ebacked Yes | 8c | 228.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 227.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8403…5c98backed No | 75c | 214.57$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 17c | 198.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 177.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 78c | 170$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 156$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 79c | 140.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 45c | 133.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 10c | 128.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 27c | 123$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 52c | 122.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde7…ec9bbacked No | 80c | 100.75$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…8d4bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…92bfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed No | 75c | 83.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fc…dc2fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 75.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…d7b8backed No | 79c | 74.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 20c | 72.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked No | 79c | 63.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…0e1cbacked Yes | 35c | 50.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ed…b8edbacked Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 63c | 42.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 77c | 25.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…bf5bbacked No | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.