Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d35112c4b54c098a5a9ca2d9df09eff427419e64bb87ae7b425de7ced2c5174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 11c | 6,039$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.49 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 4,033$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.49 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 23c | 3,000$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.99 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdd…0a35backed Yes | 7c | 2,906$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes | 23c | 2,133$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.57 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 79c | 1,954$1,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.82 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,676$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfa…289ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,389$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,182$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 76c | 1,135$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.96 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,057$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.51 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,036$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.26 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…2b20backed Yes | 5c | 876.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…70aebacked Yes | 17c | 722.42$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 76c | 686.96$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.11 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…384fbacked Yes | 21c | 623.34$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 620.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 16c | 620.72$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.08 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…2b89backed Yes | 21c | 591.79$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 570.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 72c | 540.23$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.75 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 20c | 511$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 16c | 510$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…e34abacked Yes | 19c | 465$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 27c | 459.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 10c | 443.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 77c | 430.14$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.79 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 27c | 423$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 13c | 391.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 77c | 379.17$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6899…18dbbacked Yes | 24c | 374.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 78c | 336.22$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…d87fbacked Yes | 20c | 335.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe52…32c5backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 10c | 294.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819e…e967backed Yes | 15c | 252.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd6…052fbacked Yes | 8c | 193.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 18c | 184.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…fb46backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ca…8561backed No | 72c | 165.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 18c | 163.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed No | 77c | 155.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 26c | 155.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 77c | 153.58$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…8601backed No | 74c | 138.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…31fdbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…67ccbacked No | 77c | 130.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…3a88backed No | 76c | 129$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…c73cbacked Yes | 19c | 128.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6438…7572backed Yes | 17c | 114.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x426e…acd0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 28c | 99.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…f89ebacked Yes | 29c | 99.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 20c | 98.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 25c | 98.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 74c | 90.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 89.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…8216backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +49%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…617abacked Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 21c | 56.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c6d9backed No | 79c | 56.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…cfc5backed No | 78c | 45.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 72c | 41.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa343…0370backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…0fa6backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed No | 77c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 75c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcce8…df43backed No | 73c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by November 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.