Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25eaf58a5d5736fee1b13b47a809df80d4709c8e6b1f34f1abb77cfc408e83d

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $899,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $635,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $899,366 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 547 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	25c	18,132$4,553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,552.69	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	18,000$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.21	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa976…6471backed Yes	26c	17,105$4,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,422.01	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-60%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	13,616$2,255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,255	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2364…d963backed No	70c	13,287$9,283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,004.07	21	71.4%15 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	65cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	24c	13,098$3,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,165.93	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	12,468$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.92	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	12,073$1,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,081.71	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	11,234$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.98	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	10,829$1,207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,207.01	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	27c	10,782$2,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,859.72	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	10,527$7,529 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,998.32	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	0c	10,473$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	4c	10,283$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.73	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	11c	8,739$934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$933.78	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	78c	7,069$5,534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,534.69	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	25c	6,024$1,495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,495.45	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	6,000$846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$846.11	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	23c	5,981$1,359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,358.68	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes	46c	5,921$2,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,719.16	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	25c	5,479$1,346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,345.59	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	5c	5,441$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.97	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	29c	5,236$1,515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,514.95	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	26c	5,000$1,295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,295.35	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	46c	4,353$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	30c	4,048$1,201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.6	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	21c	4,008$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.86	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	3c	4,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	2c	4,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	21c	3,973$830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.86	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed Yes	29c	3,732$1,076 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,075.69	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	25c	3,619$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.66	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	21c	3,317$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706.47	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b0…2f8bbacked No	74c	3,161$2,340 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820.48	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	32c	3,055$964 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$963.56	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	14c	3,000$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	5c	3,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.99	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ed…4927backed Yes	20c	2,847$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.72	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	25c	2,546$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.37	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	25c	2,542$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.06	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	24c	2,529$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.14	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26c8…2564backed Yes	33c	2,449$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes	33c	2,312$752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.9	40	20%8 W · 32 L	-2.9wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	45c	2,209$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	30c	2,203$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$653.42	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes	24c	2,175$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.23	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	16c	2,149$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.22	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	78c	2,127$1,653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$474.55	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	69c	2,001$1,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$628.51	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f20…6e4ebacked No	62c	2,000$1,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$760	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.2wins	+0.58per pick	42cpaid	+198.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf50c…c902backed No	64c	2,000$1,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	23c	2,000$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2012…109dbacked Yes	36c	2,000$729 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729.3	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	48cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf91…2991backed Yes	38c	2,000$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3519…8012backed No	63c	2,000$1,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$740	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…cdfcbacked Yes	37c	2,000$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd37…d668backed Yes	36c	2,000$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb609…e03abacked Yes	38c	2,000$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb6…98c7backed No	64c	2,000$1,270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+76%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a7c…2fd1backed Yes	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,019.73	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.5wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	1,967$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.71	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed Yes	27c	1,947$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.67	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	22c	1,910$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.94	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	72c	1,892$1,358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$533.94	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	31c	1,871$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.25	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	17c	1,866$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.63	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	6c	1,807$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.58	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x854e…8ad8backed Yes	24c	1,765$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.48	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ae9…8dd6backed No	70c	1,754$1,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$532.57	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	65cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	7c	1,700$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.99	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked Yes	30c	1,689$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	20cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	3c	1,651$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.08	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	33c	1,645$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$544.83	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes	9c	1,640$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.29	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+104%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c38…919dbacked Yes	24c	1,607$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.4	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	25c	1,594$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	27c	1,577$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d27…bd5abacked Yes	26c	1,558$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.76	118	34.7%41 W · 77 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,550$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	23c	1,500$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.7	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	8c	1,500$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.98	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6179…d549backed Yes	55c	1,500$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.99	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdafe…c673backed Yes	11c	1,473$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.76	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c9…2b4bbacked Yes	17c	1,473$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.91	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	12c	1,449$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.11	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ec…d73cbacked Yes	30c	1,441$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.53	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	26c	1,437$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.68	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed No	60c	1,394$837 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$556.56	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	14c	1,300$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.1	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	21c	1,281$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.43	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63dd…c279backed Yes	24c	1,269$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-24%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes	18c	1,252$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.65	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	26c	1,244$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.26	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	1,221$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.97	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	2c	1,212$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5153…af7dbacked Yes	26c	1,202$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.02	97	30.9%30 W · 67 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	33c	1,190$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	15c	1,164$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	13c	1,158$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.83	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	25c	1,155$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.22	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event