Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b3b4cea866a8d6267c8ef0c2ee75a496537952277a80772f40ea965102340d7

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $634,474
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $150,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $634,474 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	127,334$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.78	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	73,513$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.98	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	17,776$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	12,140$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	8,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,793$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	7,179$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.9	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	1c	6,800$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,440$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.01	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	4,544$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8af3…0c5dbacked Yes	0c	4,047$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.19	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	3,813$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	0c	3,132$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x620e…621bbacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	2,943$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,744$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	3c	2,705$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.63	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	2,585$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	2c	2,385$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.62	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	9c	2,334$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes	3c	2,300$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.25	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	2,183$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.17	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	5c	2,074$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.46	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	5c	2,060$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.33	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	2,050$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,016$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,899$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.44	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	1,783$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,728$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.31	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,613$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.54	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,612$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.82	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,590$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,579$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0eea…726bbacked Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,230$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.72	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	2c	1,137$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	4c	1,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fdc…06b4backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	6c	999.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	999.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	819.27$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.29	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…c1d8backed Yes	1c	798.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	7c	758.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.07	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	14c	739.84$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	7c	699.94$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.24	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	5c	500.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.76	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes	3c	450$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	6c	399.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	8c	330.73$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes	3c	319.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e45…efefbacked Yes	6c	304.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.28	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	301.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f53…49b0backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	7c	228.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	7c	209.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce7e…e65fbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6855…7acabacked Yes	6c	199.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27b…09f4backed Yes	9c	163.77$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ef7…d00ebacked Yes	7c	157.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b84…74c6backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f17…b80bbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event