Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c13aeb93131dd8b744627c221365962ad230844a6b5f0ed1e6dcd1e4c0adee

Rebuilt 38 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $589,601
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $258,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $589,601 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	74,998$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.77	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	68,775$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.55	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8af3…0c5dbacked Yes	0c	15,843$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.05	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x913c…d100backed Yes	3c	15,081$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.44	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,552$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa978…5801backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	8,217$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	0c	7,176$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.02	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	0c	5,030$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	4,745$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,918$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.61	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,822$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	2,700$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.16	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	2,580$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.31	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	2,362$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.19	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ee6…8af6backed Yes	1c	2,358$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,991$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.96	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,911$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	1,826$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	7c	1,749$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.65	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	2c	1,721$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.43	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa22f…c1d8backed Yes	1c	1,681$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,574$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.59	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eea…726bbacked Yes	7c	1,429$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	6c	1,366$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.97	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,332$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.67	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	8c	1,291$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	5c	1,267$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.86	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	1,144$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.41	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	9c	1,106$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	124	12.1%15 W · 109 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	845.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.16	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	5c	706.47$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	7c	702.24$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.74	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	7c	699.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes	7c	587.93$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.16	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3564…fa48backed Yes	6c	500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Yes	5c	499.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	499.91$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	4c	374.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	7c	360$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	7c	340.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x063b…efbebacked Yes	7c	340.48$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb19b…478dbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a8f…236cbacked Yes	6c	236.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	6c	233.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8658…6b51backed Yes	7c	214.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5730…5cffbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	6c	199.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	6c	185$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e1e…0f8abacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	27.4%17 W · 45 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event