Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ecc4e9dde2eb7a53c58dd50a094146a4c504ad182cc3cd686aabf4e683879e0

Rebuilt 15 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $289,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $193,912

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,143 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	86,495$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.49	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	23,645$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.64	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes	1c	13,333$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.71	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	3c	8,296$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.18	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	7,206$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	4,118$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.37	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,781$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.71	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	2c	2,198$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ce…83d5backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	20%11 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	2c	1,638$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.98	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	3c	1,250$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.71	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	4c	920.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	1c	900$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	898.92$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.72	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…3d70backed Yes	4c	844.68$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.09	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	4c	543.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe8b…0793backed Yes	4c	507.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-34%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x118c…74c5backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Yes	4c	476.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes	4c	474.1$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	432.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Yes	3c	399.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb2…6b49backed Yes	4c	359.88$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa78b…271cbacked Yes	4c	281.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	4c	267.17$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa9c…13a0backed Yes	4c	247.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event