Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1be0a51cf37565b12c7522a4da65dd9227e8fa13fe4ec87e1670e50cb7a505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,685,847
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,685,847 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 47,759$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…9949backed Yes | 0c | 42,778$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…356abacked Yes | 0c | 33,232$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,999$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 0.7%1 W · 135 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +635.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…2748backed Yes | 0c | 26,778$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…b749backed Yes | 0c | 26,778$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…fe34backed Yes | 0c | 26,004$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 89 | 0%0 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…f100backed Yes | 0c | 25,778$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…ca4cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,778$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b0…2f44backed Yes | 0c | 25,778$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea92…ec0abacked Yes | 0c | 23,769$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…d0a0backed Yes | 0c | 23,670$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…f022backed Yes | 0c | 23,670$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e09…81e2backed Yes | 0c | 23,670$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…a95ebacked Yes | 0c | 23,670$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…76aebacked Yes | 0c | 23,648$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e39…efc6backed Yes | 0c | 22,670$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…a5e5backed Yes | 0c | 22,670$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6333…0e79backed Yes | 0c | 22,670$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…6f19backed Yes | 0c | 22,670$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…5c70backed Yes | 0c | 22,670$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3836…fe15backed Yes | 0c | 20,771$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab4…ebc0backed Yes | 0c | 20,736$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…5974backed Yes | 0c | 20,736$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2aa…21a2backed Yes | 0c | 19,771$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe078…8582backed Yes | 0c | 19,736$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…a9c4backed Yes | 0c | 18,636$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes | 1c | 16,469$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.63 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7633…4223backed Yes | 0c | 16,199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6946…1d8abacked Yes | 0c | 16,199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…4d02backed Yes | 0c | 16,143$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd274…e18fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…c981backed Yes | 0c | 15,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…26c6backed Yes | 0c | 15,143$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6e…cc6fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,295$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,546$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Yes | 0c | 3,730$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed Yes | 0c | 2,725$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,620$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,405$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 118 | 5.1%6 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 1,401$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 2c | 1,249$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…90cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,175$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea9…f124backed Yes | 2c | 962.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 3c | 820.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…7c12backed Yes | 3c | 653.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…9db4backed Yes | 2c | 630$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe50…d592backed Yes | 3c | 604.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb2…6b49backed Yes | 3c | 355.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.