Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b48fc522dbd8405cc168b8eea9f81a9b3ef44e8035fcc4318c11eeab0c2678f

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $921,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $450,482

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $921,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	202,000$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	85,224$1,846 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,846.5	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	31,434$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.62	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	2c	16,218$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.67	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,837$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.84	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	11,402$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.88	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	0c	10,006$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.05	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	9,228$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.32	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	2c	8,965$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.75	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5361…593bbacked Yes	1c	8,689$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	7,611$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.27	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	6,809$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	6,562$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes	0c	6,084$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	5,950$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.28	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes	1c	5,924$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	38cpaid	-78.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	5,090$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.18	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	1c	5,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	3c	4,175$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.21	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,007$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,815$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	1c	3,760$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	7c	3,440$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.45	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	3,105$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.57	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,855$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.15	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	2,600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.98	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	1c	2,558$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.78	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,501$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.72	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	1c	2,494$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.44	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,479$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.95	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	7c	2,275$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.38	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes	2c	2,187$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.99	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	9c	2,183$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	2,173$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.06	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	2,112$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.02	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	5c	2,020$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.98	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	5c	2,000$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,992$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.05	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,984$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.84	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	1,975$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.18	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5def…1283backed Yes	1c	1,945$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-84.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	2c	1,908$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	8c	1,894$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.09	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	6c	1,868$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.74	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	4c	1,858$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.07	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,800$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,777$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.34	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40af…d8eebacked Yes	1c	1,651$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	1,644$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7369…59a1backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	65	27.7%18 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,473$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.92	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	5c	1,423$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.29	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes	1c	1,412$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes	9c	1,410$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.95	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d0…f99fbacked Yes	9c	1,400$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b7…1e4abacked Yes	7c	1,400$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	1,384$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa1…b815backed Yes	1c	1,361$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.38	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a25…0eecbacked Yes	1c	1,352$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	2c	1,340$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77a…df5ebacked Yes	1c	1,339$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	1c	1,294$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes	7c	1,289$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.14	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f31…8cf3backed Yes	2c	1,238$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.88	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	1,126$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	2c	1,116$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	9c	1,103$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes	4c	1,086$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.39	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+104%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,026$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e80…30e2backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	9c	1,000$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	6c	989.08$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.27	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	8c	962.49$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.4	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb97c…a418backed Yes	2c	905.25$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.49	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	6c	827.12$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	5c	778.64$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.94	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	770.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f8…1092backed Yes	6c	769.65$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.18	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c71…a3bcbacked Yes	12c	750$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-55%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	11c	729.59$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.12	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd6…1833backed Yes	9c	717.46$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	8c	711.9$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.24	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a42…6aa2backed Yes	3c	707.24$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	649.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.33	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acc…3e42backed Yes	2c	635.58$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	40	15%6 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	2c	617.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.3	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…a441backed Yes	6c	600$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	576.75$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.21	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fcb…f083backed Yes	8c	543.82$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.51	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	3c	536.53$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4835…c692backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75c8…d43cbacked Yes	4c	466.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event