Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcec76f0036e456809ca4e2c3f1a76874a4eff9633ef3aef23e5c669e0a55068f

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $927,768
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $551,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $927,768 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	36,926$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.93	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	32,618$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.75	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x459a…e220backed Yes	0c	32,416$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	32,030$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.95	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a02…807cbacked Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	29,007$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.13	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	16,737$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.48	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	14,697$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.26	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	3c	14,113$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.35	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	12,279$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.18	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	12,146$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.88	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	11,426$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.78	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	9,073$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.98	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x060a…e99abacked Yes	3c	5,000$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	50	16%8 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	+59.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf527…e4e0backed Yes	2c	4,930$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.65	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked Yes	6c	4,685$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	4,684$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.4	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c65…701bbacked Yes	3c	4,165$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,863$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.15	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	3c	3,850$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.59	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e2f…578fbacked Yes	2c	3,783$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.84	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	3,772$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.36	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	3c	3,596$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.82	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	3c	3,388$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes	2c	3,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	52	11.5%6 W · 46 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	11c	2,852$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	6c	2,835$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.19	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	2,720$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.28	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes	6c	2,500$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.51	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	2,431$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.63	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	4c	2,375$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.46	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	2,247$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.13	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	2,155$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.03	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	6c	2,089$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.83	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	2,017$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.2	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	3c	2,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.89	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	4c	2,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	1,987$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	1,905$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes	1c	1,800$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb50c…9bb8backed Yes	11c	1,762$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.99	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-32%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	4c	1,650$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	3c	1,647$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.58	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	1,509$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.05	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,462$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.92	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84ec…daabbacked Yes	2c	1,453$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.89	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34aa…980abacked Yes	6c	1,447$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	1,420$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.82	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	1,417$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd6e…c7e1backed Yes	7c	1,367$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	4c	1,352$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,320$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes	6c	1,296$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.8	89	24.7%22 W · 67 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1de5…c008backed Yes	4c	1,260$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-73%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,243$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb44…6fa6backed Yes	1c	1,219$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	13c	1,209$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.64	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,200$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes	2c	1,198$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.97	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	7c	1,124$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.08	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	1,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	1,050$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	1c	1,050$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes	3c	1,048$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.61	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	5c	1,038$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	3c	1,038$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	5c	1,034$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4083…308fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6388…7622backed Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed Yes	2c	1,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	1,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes	3c	985.59$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.02	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	3c	985.04$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.33	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	3c	900.44$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70a…8084backed Yes	12c	832.32$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.9	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	7c	821.74$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.79	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	2c	811.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.22	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	2c	757.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	755.38$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.6	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	735$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.01	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	4c	664.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8e…e3cebacked Yes	5c	654.37$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	79	16.5%13 W · 66 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd164…f17bbacked Yes	8c	640.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f2b…90cfbacked Yes	3c	633.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x018c…448abacked Yes	3c	576.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c9…2b4bbacked Yes	9c	556.84$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.8	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x605b…7275backed Yes	2c	526.32$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	3c	509.07$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	7c	500.95$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402a…30b5backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5813…7279backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	4c	499.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	7c	497.73$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.77	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	3c	494.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event