Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9a633c8befb213c2e26f41800be46c313b835da9ab5438bbf6c1f3f15b4b32

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $245,848
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $43,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,848 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	17,997$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.71	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,794$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…c1d8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,748$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.73	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1d2…ec9cbacked Yes	9c	4,689$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c46…fe27backed Yes	3c	3,006$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.75	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	4c	2,209$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.55	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb423…1aeabacked Yes	5c	1,859$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.41	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1f…7392backed Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.8	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	24cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1c7…0854backed Yes	4c	1,457$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	4c	1,249$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.79	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe578…9bc8backed Yes	8c	1,221$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74fc…f12bbacked Yes	8c	1,197$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.39	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	3c	1,111$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.69	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes	5c	1,100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	67	6%4 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c5…2788backed Yes	2c	1,066$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	3c	1,050$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f59…3a50backed Yes	7c	1,029$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.01	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-58.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…52b5backed Yes	2c	999.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	3c	989.25$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	984.97$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.37	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes	12c	852.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…bac9backed Yes	2c	825$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	755.37$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed7…e255backed Yes	8c	750.72$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-62.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481c…51f5backed Yes	6c	616.08$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.82	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	6c	568.36$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.07	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe50…d592backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	48	6.3%3 W · 45 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	478.57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x964f…ca58backed Yes	5c	432.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5517…a7a6backed Yes	6c	353$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fb5…440cbacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd975…5e9dbacked Yes	7c	300$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	4c	299.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6855…7acabacked Yes	4c	299.94$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfea9…f124backed Yes	8c	264.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa801…b40bbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x214c…6378backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+114.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c22…16e8backed Yes	7c	162.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event