Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44501530df2048bdd3de60bf706597e31cf9940e0e0685dd1e88a326ad1130c1

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,172,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $608,864

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,172,416 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	92,152$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.19	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	65,974$2,477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,477.38	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	6c	35,294$2,150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,149.95	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	2c	34,866$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.04	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	33,656$2,361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,360.94	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d07…d51ebacked Yes	1c	27,407$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	20,355$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.05	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	5c	17,492$806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.37	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a01…01cebacked Yes	25c	12,758$3,234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,233.54	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	-5.6wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	10,916$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.53	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ca…914abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	2c	8,352$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.41	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	6c	8,129$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.59	150	7.3%11 W · 139 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	15cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2a9…4cbdbacked Yes	23c	7,922$1,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,802.27	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	7,884$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.1	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	3c	7,712$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.74	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	5c	7,611$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.09	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	7,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	6,972$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.88	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	6,269$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.48	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes	7c	6,161$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.58	64	15.6%10 W · 54 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	11c	5,796$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.52	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5361…593bbacked Yes	2c	5,454$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	9c	5,048$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.43	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	12c	5,004$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.04	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	4,506$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.01	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	4,340$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.32	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	8c	4,116$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.06	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	4,012$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.74	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	4,000$850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	1c	3,900$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.03	122	28.7%35 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	11c	3,735$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e2…b8f5backed Yes	10c	3,702$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.16	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	5c	3,589$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.36	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,461$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.46	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	4c	3,458$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.63	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	3c	3,422$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.13	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	3,165$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.44	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	3,160$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.77	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked Yes	2c	3,090$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.89	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	35cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes	4c	3,082$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.54	78	9%7 W · 71 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	2,898$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.58	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	7c	2,869$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.56	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes	15c	2,845$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.64	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf136…7c3cbacked Yes	1c	2,799$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+63.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	2,704$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.32	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed Yes	9c	2,661$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.2	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	14c	2,594$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.47	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc168…5024backed Yes	6c	2,560$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.49	61	24.6%15 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-26%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	2,558$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.91	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fed…d914backed Yes	5c	2,484$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.74	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	5c	2,444$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.25	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	2,435$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3806…f4c4backed Yes	16c	2,431$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.85	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	2,323$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.38	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes	9c	2,299$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.11	118	5.1%6 W · 112 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+94.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	2,291$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.3	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,249$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.4	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe559…f88cbacked Yes	9c	2,222$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf2…42eebacked Yes	1c	2,198$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	42	19%8 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	4c	2,192$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.25	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	2,178$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.47	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes	6c	2,161$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.89	182	4.9%9 W · 173 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes	7c	2,086$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.63	91	4.4%4 W · 87 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-30%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes	4c	2,078$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.22	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes	8c	2,069$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-35%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0479…6422backed Yes	18c	2,053$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.11	50	22%11 W · 39 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53c…6bf7backed Yes	8c	2,040$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.7	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.68	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	6c	1,995$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.48	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,980$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.69	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	6c	1,945$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.99	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…075ebacked Yes	1c	1,932$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	5c	1,900$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.9	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	1c	1,876$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	8c	1,872$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d2a…9170backed Yes	9c	1,867$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.46	91	8.8%8 W · 83 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-33.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	5c	1,800$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.6	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	1,780$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	3c	1,731$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.53	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b3f…9708backed Yes	20c	1,710$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.31	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-71%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	6c	1,665$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.91	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc4…089cbacked Yes	3c	1,658$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c8a…ec4cbacked Yes	10c	1,651$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.31	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+104%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x386c…389ebacked Yes	5c	1,600$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.4	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11c3…60f7backed Yes	3c	1,500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2376…d5b4backed Yes	5c	1,500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.27	76	40.8%31 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceb3…108ebacked Yes	7c	1,493$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.69	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	1,458$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.44	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86f6…eafebacked Yes	12c	1,443$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.74	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	12cpaid	+195%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	2c	1,400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	11c	1,351$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.03	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	16c	1,350$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.82	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26c8…2564backed Yes	25c	1,349$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.26	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	9c	1,334$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.8	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df9…be65backed Yes	9c	1,332$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.88	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event