Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4df09c93b01ede30915c28e17f78747b793511b510ced2cc93a57460322de0b

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $762,916
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $483,963

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $762,916 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc999…5baabacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	25,179$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.36	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	4c	21,448$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$770.7	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	18,453$848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848.11	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	3c	15,139$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.99	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ed…2f93backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	2c	14,008$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.27	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	12,988$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.29	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,582$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecdb…ccd0backed Yes	2c	10,533$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes	1c	10,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	8,907$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed1e…a615backed Yes	1c	7,031$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.37	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	3c	6,000$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718b…e3c2backed Yes	1c	5,767$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.59	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	5,259$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	4,806$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.2	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35e…17bebacked Yes	1c	4,801$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	2c	4,651$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,089$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.21	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	3c	3,750$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,735$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.54	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	3,685$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	2c	3,274$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,230$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.06	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes	9c	2,907$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	3c	2,894$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.55	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa07c…11a0backed Yes	3c	2,660$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5884…9466backed Yes	16c	2,628$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.29	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	37cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	2,617$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	3c	2,485$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.93	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	2,300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Yes	6c	2,293$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.5	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	2,100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	6c	1,918$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.06	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7220…6fdebacked Yes	10c	1,845$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.42	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5b…f9a9backed Yes	1c	1,651$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b4b…8790backed Yes	11c	1,640$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.36	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	31cpaid	-69.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	4c	1,600$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.8	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf26…6f4dbacked Yes	1c	1,529$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.73	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	1c	1,457$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	2c	1,400$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	4c	1,373$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec71…b751backed Yes	8c	1,238$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4abe…11ecbacked Yes	5c	1,236$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.6	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x487b…f382backed Yes	11c	1,168$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.1	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb84b…95b1backed Yes	2c	1,106$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.05	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+4.4wins	+0.19per pick	37cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes	7c	1,100$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.75	89	23.6%21 W · 68 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726e…34b1backed Yes	1c	1,100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+614%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	1,090$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.42	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	1,086$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.73	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Yes	10c	1,039$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f42…78fcbacked Yes	2c	1,030$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x733e…859dbacked Yes	5c	1,001$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.89	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes	8c	1,000$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+79.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3113…9943backed Yes	3c	999.64$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.29	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81f3…1043backed Yes	10c	965.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	946.44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4a4…9cc0backed Yes	1c	933.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	2c	931.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	2c	884.05$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed Yes	2c	875.85$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.03	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe51f…473dbacked Yes	11c	872.66$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d9…0136backed Yes	8c	870.03$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.24	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b1…7e6fbacked Yes	1c	844.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Yes	12c	839.98$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	2c	799.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	7c	798.38$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.02	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x71cb…ecd3backed Yes	2c	783.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Yes	7c	768.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	758.27$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc90b…cb24backed Yes	8c	713.38$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.81	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	9c	701.12$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.2	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d0…5407backed Yes	2c	700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9276…454bbacked Yes	8c	697.65$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.32	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	7c	668.17$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f6…6feabacked Yes	2c	663.93$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	642.14$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x974a…ee7bbacked Yes	6c	620.42$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.47	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37b…1b84backed Yes	7c	559.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc4…a9c3backed Yes	8c	509.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes	14c	500$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.5	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	9c	490$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.86	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	2c	476.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a5…654cbacked Yes	3c	443.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	442.95$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	6c	436.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes	4c	431.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	424.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14f7…eb7ebacked Yes	5c	402.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a3…b394backed Yes	8c	400$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49f1…fe4ebacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3d3…bb8ebacked Yes	5c	366.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4250…5c32backed Yes	6c	351.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes	6c	348.62$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92c…4beabacked Yes	4c	340.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	329.07$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c16…bbcbbacked Yes	6c	320$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event