Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1607384231fbc0c8612629d28358b449a555e8017b61ae19dee667e1ae831204

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $905,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $616,296

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $905,955 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0228…a700backed Yes	2c	55,393$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.97	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	28,270$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.27	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	26,284$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.09	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35e…17bebacked Yes	0c	24,384$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	1c	24,010$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.77	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…ccd0backed Yes	0c	22,950$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	19,325$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.59	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	15,371$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6692…2976backed Yes	0c	14,971$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	13,491$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.29	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718b…e3c2backed Yes	0c	13,160$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.05	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf16…464ebacked Yes	2c	12,621$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.75	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	0c	10,094$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	10,021$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.88	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8648…2241backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	9,450$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.95	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	1c	9,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	2c	8,902$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.25	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	8,871$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.77	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,834$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.66	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked Yes	1c	8,466$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.33	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	8,453$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.2	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…bb48backed Yes	1c	8,187$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.44	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked Yes	1c	6,491$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	6,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	5,935$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.61	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	5,720$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd81…6f12backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	1c	3,800$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.3	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	1c	3,587$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes	1c	3,339$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+90%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x336e…d8a2backed Yes	1c	3,165$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc90b…cb24backed Yes	1c	3,163$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.43	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	1c	2,670$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,531$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	2,226$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	1c	2,165$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab6…8834backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a82…c2c1backed Yes	1c	1,949$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa37b…1b84backed Yes	1c	1,769$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc4…a9c3backed Yes	1c	1,686$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe51f…473dbacked Yes	2c	1,656$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.71	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf19e…8eaabacked Yes	1c	1,600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	1c	1,412$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	1c	1,208$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14a3…b394backed Yes	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf57…d39bbacked Yes	2c	1,123$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c54…2d86backed Yes	2c	1,121$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.82	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+158.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f3…1043backed Yes	2c	1,099$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x487b…f382backed Yes	1c	1,026$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	22cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	1c	999.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	999.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	821.92$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42e3…9966backed Yes	2c	788.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	2c	748.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d9…0136backed Yes	2c	717.83$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.36	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…1fc1backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+51.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x690f…3012backed Yes	2c	562.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event