Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b84b0ec38ec1d9fc97e40fed9998c268b6f717d2fd2239d6aee84d97c4bf79e

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $551,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $328,232

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $551,976 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	224,999$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	20,000$1,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,289.99	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	2c	10,966$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e1b…f717backed Yes	1c	6,716$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,991$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.58	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,504$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	2,500$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	1c	2,103$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	13c	1,888$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4e…aa07backed Yes	11c	1,257$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.85	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,050$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	8c	999.89$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	6c	999.24$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.76	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3068…7d29backed Yes	10c	884.37$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.32	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6c…f7cdbacked Yes	3c	800$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	7c	800$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	3c	750$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	699.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	632.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	3c	600$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	5c	499.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	462.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7afa…5cb0backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	61	8.2%5 W · 56 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	381.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.71	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7060…29a7backed Yes	9c	299.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-53.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cef…0d49backed Yes	9c	249.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc34…2227backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	+122.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee4…618ebacked Yes	12c	171.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	12c	170.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9d…11a8backed Yes	6c	170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	9c	129.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd507…9b56backed Yes	9c	112$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb2e…e826backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c52…0511backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.16per pick	26cpaid	+153.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event