Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81ed5081a7093381787daaa484910160f150ba066231c50d66c7784299a3dfa0

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 25, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $577,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $421,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $577,208 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	220,548$761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760.96	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1b…f717backed Yes	0c	13,236$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.99	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,699$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	8c	5,122$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes	1c	3,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	118	11%13 W · 105 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	3,038$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.37	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	3,000$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.23	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,576$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.59	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	1c	2,366$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes	3c	1,751$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+90%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec4e…aa07backed Yes	8c	1,727$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.12	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	1,700$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	6c	1,068$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.56	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	6c	999.91$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.99	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfdec…ffe8backed Yes	5c	799.98$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+103.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	4c	632.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7712…0c28backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49f1…fe4ebacked Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	355$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.12	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cef…0d49backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	8c	262.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	5c	208.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event