NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb109a5e7153174b262f271179eff37415c8f9b2c74787be7ef89c5710ac6da11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 7,917$3,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,037.84 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 6,134$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,066.75 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Over | 50c | 3,906$1,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 56c | 3,788$2,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,119.14 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Over | 51c | 3,777$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.27 | 133 | 63.2%84 W · 49 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.6wins | -0.31per pick | 55cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 51c | 1,471$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.37 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 51c | 1,392$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 1,284$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf19…976bbacked Over | 54c | 897.2$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.49 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…208bbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Over | 50c | 550.1$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.05 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 530$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 507.72$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.09 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 354.8$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed Over | 51c | 47.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…bc0dbacked Over | 60c | 42.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc6…a289backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…3e99backed Over | 69c | 23.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9d…f28ebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Golden Knights vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Golden Knights vs. FlyersGolden Knights won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.