Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70593c79b4b41353f5a57fd1fd5770b518e957cd9b463b27981235b2cab3033c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 15c | 12,260$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,893.02 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 10,698$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 9,042$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.09 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 9c | 3,676$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.79 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 13c | 3,495$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.76 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 14c | 3,366$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.12 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 3,267$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.04 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 9c | 3,228$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 8c | 3,213$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.26 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 11c | 3,194$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.96 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…99bebacked Yes | 4c | 2,878$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +223%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,552$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.97 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 6c | 2,497$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.99 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 3c | 2,497$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,465$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.36 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 14c | 2,360$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.7 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,331$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 10c | 2,309$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,226$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.46 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…cf2fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,171$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.43 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 6c | 1,973$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,962$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 5c | 1,737$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 6c | 1,639$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,521$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.97 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 18c | 1,498$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 16c | 1,481$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.55 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…a157backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,320$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.82 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 13c | 1,314$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.1 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 9c | 1,207$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 1c | 1,170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 6c | 1,133$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,121$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 9c | 1,055$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 3c | 1,044$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,041$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…e34dbacked Yes | 6c | 935.41$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 19c | 898$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.92 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 3c | 850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 12c | 807.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 800$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 13c | 788.78$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…1395backed Yes | 13c | 782.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +313.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 753.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 7c | 750$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 3c | 725.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 13c | 699.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 4c | 698.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 16c | 656.06$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 3c | 645.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…8550backed Yes | 9c | 644$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 13c | 636.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 10c | 622.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 13c | 610$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 9c | 600$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 9c | 550.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 11c | 513.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 4c | 486.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 472.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 13c | 459.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 10c | 393.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 390.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 3c | 386.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 14c | 349.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 9c | 340$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…d46ebacked Yes | 4c | 321.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…7cc5backed Yes | 3c | 313.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 12c | 310.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 5c | 310.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 16c | 308.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x308d…2abcbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 17c | 292.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 17c | 273.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 11c | 267$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 11c | 232.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a07…41eebacked Yes | 18c | 228.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7f7bbacked Yes | 9c | 228$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 13c | 216$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 213.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757e…b2ecbacked No | 80c | 206.35$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…4021backed Yes | 15c | 196.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…730abacked Yes | 15c | 194.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 10c | 190.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…ca82backed Yes | 15c | 189.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 19c | 188.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796e…bc25backed Yes | 12c | 182$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…8069backed Yes | 10c | 182$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 18c | 175.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98d…1373backed No | 80c | 175.06$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.