Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0881e4cb71490680f06e63f4132b85a550d992e1c08c76fc03d998fc398667e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 12,556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed Yes | 5c | 5,800$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,133$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.88 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769e…cd65backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,768$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 3c | 2,394$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,128$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 4c | 1,795$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 6c | 1,444$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…98a3backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…343fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 869.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 4c | 850.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 3c | 730$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 609.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 3c | 587.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 9c | 500$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094c…e608backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…d797backed Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 9c | 380$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 5c | 240$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 118 | 10.2%12 W · 106 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.