Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69ef19f9f3cfb0250bfe78f882fb3e530f385ab5bde5ef66eb6ba396a8837c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 13c | 12,223$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.96 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 1c | 9,222$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 5,080$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.44 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 9c | 5,032$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.91 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 7c | 3,242$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 3,160$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…99bebacked Yes | 6c | 3,067$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +223%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,825$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…d9efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,888$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,688$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.82 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,673$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 2c | 1,671$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 6c | 1,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,399$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 9c | 1,200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,134$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.75 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 14c | 1,050$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 16c | 989$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 15c | 950$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 10c | 909.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 12c | 899.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 733.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 3c | 730$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 8c | 723.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 11c | 711$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 11c | 699.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 15c | 691.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 11c | 683.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.25 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 2c | 670.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 13c | 610$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 8c | 497.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 476.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 7c | 462.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 448.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc641…af27backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 9c | 399.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 9c | 380$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…c0efbacked Yes | 16c | 320.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…9236backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 10c | 272.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes | 11c | 268.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 8c | 216.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…6241backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 12c | 170.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbaa…0e22backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 9c | 154.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 151.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd5…ff37backed Yes | 14c | 147.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0321…7149backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…d5f7backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.