Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fd2adc4e3f7954b4211db930b486a30b5d7b8d4b0818ad3fa62dd2efbbac510
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $500,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $566,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 365 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfec7…1594backed No | 13c | 19,306$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.47 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 12c | 13,009$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.83 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 47c | 12,783$6,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,739.76 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 61c | 11,448$6,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,469.31 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 20c | 10,823$2,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,628.24 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 21c | 10,756$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,479.5 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 20c | 9,500$1,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,589.91 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 13c | 7,379$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.28 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 14c | 7,058$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,074.38 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…deffbacked No | 0c | 6,024$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 50c | 4,760$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 37c | 4,725$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,955.87 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 9c | 4,374$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,962.15 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 4,285$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,642.41 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 78c | 4,155$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.72 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 79c | 4,043$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.24 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 0c | 3,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed No | 5c | 3,200$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.99 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…99bebacked Yes | 5c | 3,042$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,883.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +223%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90af…fe61backed Yes | 40c | 2,972$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.35 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 13c | 2,791$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 56c | 2,514$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.55 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 42c | 2,485$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.65 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 73c | 2,411$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.89 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 24c | 2,329$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.54 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 4c | 2,300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed No | 42c | 2,274$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.69 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,250$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.2 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 47c | 2,040$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.57 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked Yes | 49c | 2,028$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.3 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed No | 51c | 2,008$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.53 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed No | 78c | 1,899$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 5c | 1,813$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.43 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 80c | 1,791$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.64 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,733$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.39 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed No | 41c | 1,697$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.44 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,620$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 1c | 1,618$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,589$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.04 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,572$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.35 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 19c | 1,506$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.43 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2431…51babacked Yes | 20c | 1,462$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 79c | 1,432$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 26c | 1,421$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.58 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 24c | 1,417$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.18 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed Yes | 79c | 1,273$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.96 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,268$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.97 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 19c | 1,239$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.3 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 25c | 1,175$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.05 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 42c | 1,120$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.57 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked No | 32c | 1,114$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.78 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes | 31c | 1,111$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed No | 5c | 1,097$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 28c | 1,092$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.21 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…8121backed Yes | 25c | 1,090$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.27 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 47c | 1,080$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 18c | 1,072$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.49 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 4c | 1,020$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 18c | 1,011$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.14 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 73c | 998.63$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…7512backed No | 21c | 971.53$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.02 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…b185backed No | 60c | 944.1$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked No | 40c | 941.44$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.78 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 48c | 925$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 59c | 923.41$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.41 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 51c | 884.94$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.54 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…2c6fbacked Yes | 66c | 883.4$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked No | 43c | 849.99$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.6 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 53c | 842.61$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.61 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked No | 33c | 827.27$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed No | 56c | 799.81$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.63 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 71c | 789.84$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.86 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a6…25efbacked Yes | 78c | 779.45$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes | 77c | 778.51$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked No | 28c | 710$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.76 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 700$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.45 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 36c | 685.03$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.36 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae7…991cbacked Yes | 62c | 658.8$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 66c | 652.72$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.97 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…22e3backed Yes | 79c | 651.46$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes | 76c | 646.58$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 43c | 643.82$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.55 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d71…6945backed Yes | 21c | 640.07$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.96 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 32c | 634.73$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.35 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 18c | 610$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.86 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 19c | 597.22$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.9 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7b76backed Yes | 70c | 577.68$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.88 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…c4d4backed Yes | 29c | 577.65$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 9c | 555.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.53 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b86…53d7backed Yes | 22c | 531.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…4c6dbacked No | 4c | 508.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 63c | 506.7$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.86 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes | 46c | 506.12$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.12 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe73a…10bdbacked No | 79c | 501.6$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7364…d44ebacked Yes | 75c | 501.16$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x028a…57dcbacked Yes | 23c | 500$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +184.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 63c | 500$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.55 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed Yes | 15c | 472.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.09 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…d757backed Yes | 22c | 470.19$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.51 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-574 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 575-599 times April 4 - 11?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600 or more times April 4 - 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.