NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a91e0b4a01d15141719a2e8afbcb016ee55fd6261545a556ff368f6358cbc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 55c | 79,401$44,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,006.2 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 45c | 20,105$9,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,057.82 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 17,378$7,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,558.05 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Over | 44c | 15,876$6,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,890.52 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 44c | 9,500$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,320 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…13b6backed Over | 44c | 5,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.14 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 56c | 3,098$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.72 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 3,052$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 59c | 1,729$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.24 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 44c | 1,543$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.08 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 55c | 1,500$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 44c | 1,449$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.3 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 45c | 1,333$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.33 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 1,278$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.63 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 43c | 1,138$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.88 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 44c | 1,102$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.04 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Over | 44c | 864.97$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.34 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 44c | 827.14$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.2 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 45c | 598$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked Under | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…fb3abacked Under | 57c | 524.21$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 44c | 513.79$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.72 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Under | 57c | 473.68$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 55c | 444$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 440$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 409$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.04 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 45c | 273.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 45c | 268.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.76 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Over | 44c | 185.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…e3d9backed Under | 55c | 181.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Under | 56c | 178.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca64…389abacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 44c | 149.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Over | 44c | 137.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.16 | 104 | 56.7%59 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205f…0189backed Under | 57c | 121.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 153 | 47.7%73 W · 80 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Under | 59c | 114.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 46c | 100.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Under | 55c | 96.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 57c | 87.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 40c | 85.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 44c | 82.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Under | 56c | 78.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 490 | 53.7%263 W · 227 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15a…4e72backed Under | 56c | 73.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Under | 56c | 71.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…813dbacked Over | 46c | 65.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…4f40backed Under | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 56c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…0a1cbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 45c | 29.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…d6f8backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Over | 45c | 23.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 57c | 22.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Under | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. SharksCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.