NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d0f15c40c1bae2d517ab75aa79fc703a948bfc58fc8c1cdf20c8aa7aba22ea0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 43c | 4,000$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.99 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 44c | 2,941$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.49 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 42c | 2,087$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.63 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Over | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.14 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 1,692$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,057$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.67 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb67d…3e1bbacked Over | 57c | 964.91$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.91 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 57c | 861.07$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 56c | 550$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 57c | 505.26$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.26 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…cf95backed Over | 58c | 190.41$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 52c | 122$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 112$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 44c | 102.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 285 | 49.1%140 W · 145 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 60.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 44c | 29.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. SharksCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.