NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd95987d9aff0e6ea929949a8f497120676aa04f405fcb0545e50685f10e349e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,890
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Sharks | 64c | 1,946$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.06 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 37c | 1,840$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.56 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Sharks | 63c | 1,821$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.21 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Sharks | 65c | 983.37$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sharks | 63c | 576.73$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.28 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Capitals | 38c | 512$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.2 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Capitals | 37c | 313$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.74 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Capitals | 34c | 301.3$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.86 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ee…fb4fbacked Capitals | 37c | 294.92$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 33c | 194.18$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…b7febacked Capitals | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Sharks | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 273 | 34.4%94 W · 179 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Capitals | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Sharks | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Capitals | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Capitals | 33c | 94.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.35 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Sharks | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Sharks | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Capitals | 34c | 70$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fd…7d56backed Capitals | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c6…fb72backed Sharks | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…f95dbacked Sharks | 67c | 46.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…0b37backed Capitals | 37c | 33.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Sharks | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Sharks | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Sharks | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Sharks | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. SharksCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.