NFL · resolved market
Spread: LAR (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee04d675eaaf901167fdda0bcf547e8e5f003e2a85489943ae6c47df479d4190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LARof LAR, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,750,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,520,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,750,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af1…0f7bbacked LAR | 55c | 770,514$420,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350,165.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Cardinals | 45c | 300,000$135,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135,000 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Cardinals | 48c | 195,669$93,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93,921.21 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Cardinals | 45c | 146,716$66,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,022.01 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 46c | 109,042$49,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,993.5 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 47c | 84,104$39,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,536.12 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cardinals | 46c | 80,451$36,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,804.17 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cardinals | 45c | 25,000$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed LAR | 52c | 20,403$10,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,797.29 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed LAR | 52c | 19,231$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,230.77 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Cardinals | 52c | 3,811$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked LAR | 52c | 3,800$1,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,824 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 46c | 2,315$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.48 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed LAR | 46c | 2,049$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.72 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Cardinals | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Cardinals | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked LAR | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cardinals | 46c | 1,217$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.82 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked LAR | 62c | 1,212$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.9 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Cardinals | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…1bd1backed Cardinals | 45c | 561.11$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed LAR | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed LAR | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Cardinals | 38c | 499.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.25 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Cardinals | 46c | 430$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Cardinals | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cardinals | 46c | 399.82$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.9 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed LAR | 61c | 262.38$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Cardinals | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Cardinals | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Cardinals | 49c | 242$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.48 | 103 | 56.3%58 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked LAR | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…95fbbacked LAR | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d86bbacked LAR | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed LAR | 52c | 176.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…3290backed Cardinals | 64c | 156.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c3…3800backed LAR | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed LAR | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 206 | 32%66 W · 140 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef1…4e46backed Cardinals | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Cardinals | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked LAR | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed LAR | 52c | 94.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b3…67cdbacked Cardinals | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Cardinals | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…9f0ebacked Cardinals | 50c | 54.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cardinals | 48c | 50.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…1494backed Cardinals | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Cardinals | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Cardinals | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed LAR | 52c | 38.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Cardinals | 49c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Cardinals | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…31c8backed Cardinals | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd7…5403backed Cardinals | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…266fbacked Cardinals | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…8213backed Cardinals | 49c | 29.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…c457backed Cardinals | 46c | 28.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Cardinals | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Cardinals | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed LAR | 53c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Cardinals | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LAR (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: LAR (-6.5)LAR won
- LAR vs. CardinalsLAR won
- LAR vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Over won
- LAR vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 49.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 53.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: LAR (-10.5)LAR won
- Spread: LAR (-7.5)LAR won
- Spread: LAR (-9.5)LAR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.