NFL · resolved market

Spread: LAR (-10.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9b026905e519a38e7234be88ef047a974c813111917a60283df55e46e2cc617

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: LARof LAR, Cardinals
Resolved: Dec 7, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $313,610
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $313,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,610 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb744…5210backed Cardinals	56c	301,925$168,694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168,693.61	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed LAR	44c	290,105$127,987 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162,117.69	274	54.7%150 W · 124 L	+13.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…a89abacked LAR	46c	8,113$3,732 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,381.39	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-5.8wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3b48…050cbacked LAR	45c	4,000$1,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,200	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cardinals	54c	2,419$1,306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,306.44	758	52.5%398 W · 360 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked LAR	44c	1,423$624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$799.47	1,196	49.9%597 W · 599 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked LAR	44c	1,050$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$588	284	47.5%135 W · 149 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c77…6282backed LAR	46c	868.67$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$468.67	34	35.3%12 W · 22 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals	55c	652.95$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.54	650	48.3%314 W · 336 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef8…8712backed Cardinals	57c	528.07$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Cardinals	57c	435$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.6	75	49.3%37 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e4d…1acebacked LAR	46c	395.26$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.44	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf492…29c2backed LAR	45c	284.36$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.4	102	52.9%54 W · 48 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked LAR	45c	222.22$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.22	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	-5.8wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf133…928dbacked Cardinals	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+29.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Cardinals	50c	152$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	736	51.2%377 W · 359 L	+25.9wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Cardinals	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c5…378abacked Cardinals	56c	89.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.15per pick	47cpaid	+49%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7a8…0cecbacked Cardinals	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Cardinals	55c	75.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.86	70	44.3%31 W · 39 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed LAR	45c	55.56$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.56	109	40.4%44 W · 65 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8f8…79a8backed LAR	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	102	56.9%58 W · 44 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8959…68e2backed LAR	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked LAR	44c	35$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.6	169	40.8%69 W · 100 L	-7.9wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed LAR	45c	29.6$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.28	363	41.9%152 W · 211 L	-13.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x691b…d267backed LAR	45c	28.89$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.89	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked LAR	45c	22.73$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.5	103	57.3%59 W · 44 L	+5.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Cardinals	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: LAR (-10.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event