NFL · resolved market
Spread: LAR (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1bb429ea693bf48b2a4d4a93db8054cd3ef02e58654c065b6e0cd66ae30139e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LARof LAR, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Cardinals | 45c | 5,018$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,258.2 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked LAR | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Cardinals | 51c | 2,288$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.11 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed LAR | 48c | 2,084$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.48 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 45c | 1,587$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.3 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed LAR | 55c | 1,296$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.2 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked LAR | 51c | 1,220$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 45c | 1,061$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.7 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…2546backed LAR | 55c | 920$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed LAR | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Cardinals | 45c | 894.99$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.74 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed LAR | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked LAR | 55c | 543.44$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.55 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 51c | 480$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked LAR | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked LAR | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Cardinals | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked LAR | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed LAR | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Cardinals | 48c | 154.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked LAR | 51c | 139.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed LAR | 55c | 86.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cardinals | 47c | 82.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…0c5cbacked LAR | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed LAR | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked LAR | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd64…c090backed LAR | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed LAR | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked LAR | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cardinals | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6127backed LAR | 48c | 24.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cardinals | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cardinals | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed LAR | 55c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cardinals | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed LAR | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked LAR | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LAR (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: LAR (-6.5)LAR won
- LAR vs. CardinalsLAR won
- LAR vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Over won
- LAR vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 49.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 53.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: LAR (-10.5)LAR won
- Spread: LAR (-8.5)LAR won
- Spread: LAR (-9.5)LAR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.