NFL · resolved market
Spread: LAR (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f1c077d7a584f1edf8715a3249c325d322ba84051371b389de486da33c40f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LARof LAR, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $548,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $559,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $548,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb744…5210backed Cardinals | 51c | 437,291$221,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221,823 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed LAR | 49c | 272,900$133,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139,178.99 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cardinals | 50c | 66,826$33,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,511.16 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked LAR | 50c | 60,000$30,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,000 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed LAR | 49c | 45,000$22,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,750 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed LAR | 50c | 23,201$11,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,527.55 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked LAR | 50c | 21,071$10,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,535.5 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed LAR | 49c | 20,030$9,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,215.52 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed LAR | 50c | 19,428$9,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,714 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cardinals | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked LAR | 49c | 9,614$4,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,903.29 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed LAR | 49c | 9,433$4,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,810.63 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed LAR | 50c | 6,800$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed LAR | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed LAR | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cardinals | 51c | 5,555$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.05 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed LAR | 51c | 5,000$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 50c | 4,129$2,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.56 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…c62dbacked LAR | 49c | 4,044$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,062.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed LAR | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b48…050cbacked LAR | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed LAR | 50c | 3,120$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked LAR | 51c | 2,934$1,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.68 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…70adbacked Cardinals | 51c | 2,014$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Cardinals | 50c | 1,324$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.09 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed LAR | 49c | 1,192$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.7 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked LAR | 49c | 1,050$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.5 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Cardinals | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked LAR | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked LAR | 49c | 450$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.5 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cardinals | 49c | 396.08$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed LAR | 50c | 340.4$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Cardinals | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed LAR | 50c | 267.42$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed LAR | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked LAR | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked LAR | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…c24dbacked LAR | 50c | 195.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed LAR | 48c | 191.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed LAR | 50c | 187.48$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed LAR | 51c | 181.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99af…fedcbacked Cardinals | 52c | 157.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0a…266fbacked Cardinals | 50c | 148.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked LAR | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 82 | 74.4%61 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Cardinals | 52c | 107.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed LAR | 48c | 103.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed LAR | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Cardinals | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Cardinals | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed LAR | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked LAR | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…5b5bbacked LAR | 50c | 84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…c7f3backed Cardinals | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked LAR | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked LAR | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed LAR | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked LAR | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked LAR | 50c | 48.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…b051backed LAR | 50c | 48.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed LAR | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Cardinals | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…d99abacked LAR | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…5a57backed LAR | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked LAR | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…bdc9backed LAR | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Cardinals | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed LAR | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Cardinals | 50c | 20.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked LAR | 50c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cardinals | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed LAR | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LAR (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: LAR (-6.5)LAR won
- LAR vs. CardinalsLAR won
- LAR vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5Over won
- LAR vs. Cardinals: O/U 48.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 49.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 53.5Over won
- Rams vs. Cardinals: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: LAR (-10.5)LAR won
- Spread: LAR (-7.5)LAR won
- Spread: LAR (-8.5)LAR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.