TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Ducks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Ducksof Capitals, Ducks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$971,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$980,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $971,212 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 545 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Capitals55c304,734$168,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168,419.091,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Ducks45c282,779$126,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156,379.0311955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Ducks44c201,042$88,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,452.3417749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Capitals55c84,848$46,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,841.1888151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Ducks36c60,000$21,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,20042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Capitals57c41,427$23,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,613.5856649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Ducks43c34,643$14,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,746.510050%50 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Capitals63c33,591$21,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,093.7538748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Capitals55c31,570$17,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,363.548549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Capitals55c30,000$16,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,4301,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Ducks47c30,000$14,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,948.3526344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Capitals56c25,550$14,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,190.222,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Capitals57c20,000$11,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,40016656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Capitals56c18,554$10,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,398.0821850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ca…5838backed Capitals5c18,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Ducks43c17,500$7,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9758952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Ducks47c13,169$6,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,015.311352.2%59 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Capitals57c12,226$6,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,907.7293953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals54c11,364$6,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,095.311,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Capitals56c9,389$5,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,257.683759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Capitals54c9,287$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00023047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Ducks49c8,835$4,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,506.0144848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a8…08babacked Capitals56c8,511$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,765.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dfc…337cbacked Ducks44c8,498$3,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,758.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Capitals54c7,547$4,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,075.2347951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Capitals57c7,000$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Capitals56c6,934$3,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,852.182,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Ducks46c6,607$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,567.861741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Ducks43c6,500$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,733.0851045.5%232 W · 278 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Capitals57c6,500$3,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70530447.4%144 W · 160 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Capitals55c5,867$3,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,226.8532251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Capitals55c5,500$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,01066951%341 W · 328 L-14.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Capitals57c5,235$2,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,974.5775251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Ducks44c5,216$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,920.9115954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff51…83e3backed Capitals57c5,200$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Capitals57c5,000$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,85010145.5%46 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Ducks46c4,729$2,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,554.3532744%144 W · 183 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae1e…d204backed Ducks43c4,600$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6221973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+40%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7656…9bbdbacked Capitals56c4,426$2,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,478.551040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35ac…92a7backed Capitals57c4,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,28027548.7%134 W · 141 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Capitals54c4,000$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,153.992548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Capitals60c3,876$2,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.522,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Capitals55c3,636$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.828652.4%150 W · 136 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Capitals3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9929412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Ducks47c3,192$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.3731848.1%153 W · 165 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12e4…2f15backed Ducks44c3,162$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,770.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Capitals54c3,119$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.711,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5293…2f35backed Capitals57c3,100$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7672272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.4wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+43.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5d5e…7004backed Capitals62c2,972$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.638955.1%49 W · 40 L+9.3wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbba…f349backed Capitals56c2,903$1,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,625.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Capitals58c2,800$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,62422946.3%106 W · 123 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Ducks34c2,786$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,835.2661848.1%297 W · 321 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Capitals56c2,756$1,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,537.128541.2%35 W · 50 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals57c2,368$1,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,344.741,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ca…679bbacked Capitals53c2,254$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Ducks46c2,065$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.962,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Capitals57c2,010$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.767250%36 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Capitals62c2,000$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.161,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Capitals1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…ab18backed Capitals55c2,000$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0906162.3%38 W · 23 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Capitals55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10039047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Ducks41c1,969$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.7186649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Ducks42c1,940$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.227143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Capitals55c1,883$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.7687447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Capitals67c1,820$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.0410565.7%69 W · 36 L+15.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Capitals56c1,600$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.3431851.9%165 W · 153 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Capitals56c1,510$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.561,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb498…64a0backed Ducks43c1,500$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4877…7f00backed Ducks43c1,400$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+101%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc007…1639backed Ducks43c1,379$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.225651.8%29 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Capitals55c1,375$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.1927353.8%147 W · 126 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x273c…7a42backed Capitals55c1,365$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.8818159.7%108 W · 73 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Capitals55c1,364$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.5248452.3%253 W · 231 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc449…2239backed Capitals57c1,346$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76310255.9%57 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07f…c3bcbacked Ducks43c1,300$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$741450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Ducks43c1,300$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74169550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Capitals58c1,293$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75043743%188 W · 249 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Capitals57c1,218$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.9262249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc352…2ccbbacked Ducks43c1,163$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.79977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+57.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Ducks43c1,162$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.3438844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Ducks46c1,146$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.999638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24f…849ebacked Capitals56c1,107$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62011151.4%57 W · 54 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df8…a696backed Capitals53c1,100$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Ducks30c1,071$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.1213435.8%48 W · 86 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Ducks43c1,040$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.7463249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Ducks49c1,033$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.922544%11 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Ducks42c1,010$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.525446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Capitals57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57033447.9%160 W · 174 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a44…a73ebacked Ducks43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5701100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Capitals53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53016241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Capitals55c992.87$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.0832451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Ducks39c949.76$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.483,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Ducks38c910$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.5831257.4%179 W · 133 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x416a…fd6cbacked Capitals57c900$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5131060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x974a…ee7bbacked Capitals56c900$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Ducks40c885.94$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.9481157.2%464 W · 347 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Capitals58c862.07$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fe…74dbbacked Ducks44c847.73$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.731764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+33.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Capitals56c826$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.551,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ac…957dbacked Capitals57c800$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4564650%23 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.