NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4baebb5595cfe1c2ced6b549937ab863ac443884ce5fb5c5073a7dd9af7eb94e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Over | 52c | 31,237$16,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,010.89 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 21,219$10,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,318.13 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 9,277$4,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,360.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 48c | 6,525$3,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,106.64 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Under | 51c | 5,645$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 53c | 2,624$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.28 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 2,545$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.85 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 52c | 1,901$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.54 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Over | 51c | 1,667$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 51c | 1,393$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 52c | 1,365$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.38 | 269 | 46.1%124 W · 145 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 50c | 1,201$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.35 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 1,018$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.48 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 793.54$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.7 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 50c | 636$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 53c | 602$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.04 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…61bbbacked Under | 57c | 530$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.1 | 412 | 48.3%199 W · 213 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 528$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 524.79$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.65 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 52c | 501.92$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.92 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 461$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.22 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 47c | 444$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 8c | 385$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.2 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98ff…4303backed Under | 52c | 375.19$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 214$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…670fbacked Under | 50c | 214$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 51c | 150.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Over | 53c | 86.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 44c | 65.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 51c | 63.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Under | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 30.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Over | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. DucksDucks won
- Capitals vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.