Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f2de24971d731f5034c46ed4d0c7661b1858090a40023cef749ae1460baf395
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0be…944ebacked Yes | 1c | 17,312$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 2c | 6,112$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,646$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,055$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…6ee8backed Yes | 23c | 1,719$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe547…0443backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcec…1997backed Yes | 14c | 785.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 604.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…683bbacked No | 80c | 465$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +163.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f8…ee2dbacked Yes | 25c | 459.06$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…aff7backed Yes | 7c | 344$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 80c | 335.58$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.36 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0117…7708backed Yes | 12c | 241.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…1362backed Yes | 24c | 200.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -89%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6500…44e5backed Yes | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 7c | 163.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +179.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9940…fbecbacked Yes | 12c | 152.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 9c | 136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd7…17e5backed Yes | 16c | 131.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…404bbacked Yes | 15c | 93.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…b1ccbacked Yes | 14c | 85.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b56…6431backed No | 76c | 15.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.