Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa9cddf6617ab2356c7c9656027cb74cb8452573f663270922dae067b61b0f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb701…6c06backed Yes | 7c | 10,760$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 9,792$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.71 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c48…bf8cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,674$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 4c | 7,486$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.39 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a87…fdc3backed Yes | 4c | 6,822$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…40c0backed Yes | 1c | 6,667$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,556$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.18 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…aff7backed Yes | 5c | 5,585$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 2c | 4,096$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.79 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…4d32backed Yes | 3c | 3,836$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,641$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 3,604$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 4c | 3,006$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.71 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…9d8dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,513$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…d446backed Yes | 3c | 2,504$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,320$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…8865backed Yes | 5c | 2,088$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 10c | 1,989$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,899$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…a08ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,889$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96a…683ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,563$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…46b6backed Yes | 7c | 1,531$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…fc5fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,504$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…5253backed Yes | 3c | 1,448$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x291d…b3d3backed Yes | 7c | 1,257$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…d019backed Yes | 2c | 1,147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,141$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7900…1e3ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,129$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…14fabacked Yes | 5c | 1,112$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa06b…7fe2backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…a330backed Yes | 2c | 1,045$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8a…dc7bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…a6fabacked Yes | 3c | 830.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…c399backed Yes | 5c | 826.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…72cfbacked Yes | 3c | 800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…d14dbacked Yes | 3c | 776.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae1…9e37backed Yes | 3c | 742.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…51b2backed Yes | 3c | 727.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ac…1fa1backed Yes | 3c | 712.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a52…ed47backed Yes | 4c | 691.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…419abacked Yes | 4c | 689.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…5a11backed Yes | 2c | 637.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 3c | 620.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…c6f2backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…d63ebacked Yes | 4c | 579.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4f…81ccbacked Yes | 5c | 574.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…816ebacked Yes | 3c | 543.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc904…ca06backed Yes | 5c | 520.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 4c | 512.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +179.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6322…30c3backed Yes | 5c | 503.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…9042backed Yes | 2c | 501.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…aa25backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…ac87backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…fcb6backed Yes | 2c | 499.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…ee27backed Yes | 4c | 479.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…640bbacked Yes | 4c | 465.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…4e68backed Yes | 7c | 456.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6247…dddabacked Yes | 4c | 377.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…dff2backed Yes | 3c | 349.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c1…c024backed Yes | 5c | 306.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…4172backed Yes | 6c | 200.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…c74dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -59%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…bebabacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.