Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35cd282f6c4d49106d7156b27bbbff42d328199f47501dd4c850bab212e61e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,064,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $976,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,064,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa446…754ebacked Yes | 2c | 40,416$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.67 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes | 1c | 33,425$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 4c | 24,378$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 21,618$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.14 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 19,977$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…319bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,859$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked Yes | 1c | 17,558$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8509…dee2backed Yes | 8c | 16,828$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…b825backed Yes | 1c | 16,313$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 3c | 15,909$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…0f5abacked Yes | 2c | 15,685$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…e9dcbacked Yes | 22c | 12,380$2,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,760.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed66…2a9fbacked No | 22c | 12,250$2,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,536.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +351.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…756ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,438$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 10,700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,030$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b5…bef4backed No | 17c | 10,000$1,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,310 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 9,461$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.96 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…7cb2backed Yes | 1c | 8,917$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…bd17backed Yes | 1c | 8,740$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 7,694$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.74 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,428$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 0c | 6,883$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f9…77e8backed Yes | 1c | 6,685$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…9d8dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,164$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…ea49backed Yes | 1c | 6,156$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…ddf5backed Yes | 0c | 6,079$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…ce08backed Yes | 40c | 6,028$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…8641backed Yes | 2c | 5,641$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 4c | 5,300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 4,963$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…bee3backed Yes | 1c | 4,822$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…34f4backed Yes | 1c | 4,352$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9b…9d5bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,202$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 4,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…c72fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,962$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…cdc6backed Yes | 4c | 3,930$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 3,843$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…2803backed Yes | 5c | 3,793$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…cf4bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,717$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 25c | 3,500$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.46 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 38c | 3,405$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,127.14 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0333backed Yes | 78c | 3,400$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f2…e3efbacked No | 78c | 3,350$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 1c | 3,341$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…a1c2backed No | 78c | 3,330$2,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 63c | 3,267$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.28 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 1c | 3,222$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,183$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…2789backed Yes | 78c | 3,150$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…19a3backed Yes | 44c | 3,130$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8840backed Yes | 1c | 3,085$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…dfa7backed Yes | 3c | 3,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,017$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…f58cbacked No | 78c | 3,000$2,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…2926backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,993$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…a75cbacked Yes | 78c | 2,980$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 2c | 2,975$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 40c | 2,958$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.01 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…426bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,942$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…f8adbacked Yes | 0c | 2,907$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…bba5backed Yes | 1c | 2,748$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7e…cee2backed Yes | 78c | 2,720$2,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…5df1backed No | 78c | 2,700$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4d…7210backed Yes | 1c | 2,532$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…4e02backed Yes | 1c | 2,461$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked No | 21c | 2,311$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8078backed Yes | 2c | 2,297$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…63c6backed Yes | 13c | 2,199$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76c…df61backed Yes | 1c | 2,108$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,092$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes | 3c | 2,085$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 1,976$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3907…c4b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,955$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…e1cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,907$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +95%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…a82bbacked No | 17c | 1,799$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed Yes | 6c | 1,756$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866e…a5e4backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x728d…7974backed Yes | 3c | 1,722$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 30c | 1,675$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.89 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +12.3wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…ec71backed Yes | 1c | 1,670$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 60c | 1,640$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…93e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,626$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c2…85debacked Yes | 1c | 1,621$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d19…f755backed Yes | 8c | 1,590$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…53fbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,487$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc9…0084backed Yes | 3c | 1,471$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7612…0850backed Yes | 3c | 1,467$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e19…ea5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,409$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed Yes | 17c | 1,408$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…532fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,393$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…7540backed Yes | 1c | 1,388$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed No | 42c | 1,385$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 61c | 1,360$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.