TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,064,557
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$976,326

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,064,557 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 334 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa446…754ebacked Yes2c40,416$929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$928.673225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes1c33,425$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes4c24,378$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c21,618$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.141,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c19,977$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…319bbacked Yes1c17,859$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8081…95cabacked Yes1c17,558$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.0690%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8509…dee2backed Yes8c16,828$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0b…b825backed Yes1c16,313$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.38425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes3c15,909$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa496…0f5abacked Yes2c15,685$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda7c…e9dcbacked Yes22c12,380$2,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,760.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed66…2a9fbacked No22c12,250$2,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,536.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+351.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8857…756ebacked Yes1c11,438$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c10,700$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Yes1c10,030$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3b5…bef4backed No17c10,000$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,310850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+50.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes4c9,461$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.96254%1 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-85.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e5…7cb2backed Yes1c8,917$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d84…bd17backed Yes1c8,740$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes16c7,694$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,214.7430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes0c7,428$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc596…c316backed Yes0c6,883$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8f9…77e8backed Yes1c6,685$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d1…9d8dbacked Yes1c6,164$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4970%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbea…ea49backed Yes1c6,156$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.94911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x685f…ddf5backed Yes0c6,079$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29f…ce08backed Yes40c6,028$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9476…8641backed Yes2c5,641$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8df…abd7backed Yes4c5,300$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes1c5,180$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes0c4,963$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8340%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed Yes1c4,822$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1440…34f4backed Yes1c4,352$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d9b…9d5bbacked Yes1c4,202$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c4,100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0691…c72fbacked Yes1c3,962$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d59…cdc6backed Yes4c3,930$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c3,843$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.222934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…2803backed Yes5c3,793$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.33933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0da5…cf4bbacked Yes1c3,717$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.29540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes25c3,500$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.463312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No38c3,405$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.144856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0333backed Yes78c3,400$2,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,658.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4f2…e3efbacked No78c3,350$2,603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes1c3,341$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45316.5%2 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+243.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a0…a1c2backed No78c3,330$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes63c3,267$2,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,054.285844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes1c3,222$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.622227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c3,183$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.412324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8035…2789backed Yes78c3,150$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,460.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ac…19a3backed Yes44c3,130$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ab…8840backed Yes1c3,085$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d5…dfa7backed Yes3c3,021$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f63…a78dbacked Yes2c3,017$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes2c3,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbec…f58cbacked No78c3,000$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2604440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x56a6…2926backed Yes2c3,000$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes1c2,993$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b3…a75cbacked Yes78c2,980$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes2c2,975$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.352010%2 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No40c2,958$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.017150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7d5…426bbacked Yes2c2,942$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7259…f8adbacked Yes0c2,907$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3154…bba5backed Yes1c2,748$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b7e…cee2backed Yes78c2,720$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5227…5df1backed No78c2,700$2,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4d…7210backed Yes1c2,532$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f7…4e02backed Yes1c2,461$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2862…b2ddbacked No21c2,311$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+68.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8078backed Yes2c2,297$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.28333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick7cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc17…63c6backed Yes13c2,199$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd54c…391dbacked Yes1c2,121$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd76c…df61backed Yes1c2,108$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked Yes2c2,092$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes3c2,085$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c1,976$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1664.5%3 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-60.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3907…c4b8backed Yes1c1,955$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abf…e1cbbacked Yes4c1,907$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+95%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91f…a82bbacked No17c1,799$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.84425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+51%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba50…9f97backed Yes6c1,756$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick20cpaid+15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x866e…a5e4backed Yes1c1,750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x728d…7974backed Yes3c1,722$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed No30c1,675$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.897439.2%29 W · 45 L+12.3wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+131.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe709…ec71backed Yes1c1,670$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed Yes60c1,640$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f78…93e8backed Yes1c1,626$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28c2…85debacked Yes1c1,621$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d19…f755backed Yes8c1,590$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f0…53fbbacked Yes2c1,487$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc9…0084backed Yes3c1,471$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7612…0850backed Yes3c1,467$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e19…ea5fbacked Yes1c1,450$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes3c1,409$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3416516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes17c1,408$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.481637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a30…532fbacked Yes2c1,393$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-67.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…7540backed Yes1c1,388$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe44a…c4f8backed No42c1,385$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid-3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked No61c1,360$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.94850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.