Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6cf08155095baa3316cef535d43631fd5df42316df6489ac3ab5e4651a546a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $247,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $244,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa446…754ebacked Yes | 3c | 10,524$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.03 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…63c6backed Yes | 10c | 7,100$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,975$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 0c | 6,877$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 1c | 6,865$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,612$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 5,501$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.8 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 7c | 4,315$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.11 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 0c | 4,020$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…ce08backed Yes | 20c | 3,996$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed Yes | 8c | 3,733$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,415$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 68c | 3,201$2,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.18 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -10.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -55%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 74c | 2,713$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.37 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 72c | 2,702$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.92 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…c72fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,261$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 4c | 2,100$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes | 2c | 2,098$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 11c | 1,950$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.91 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49a…36ccbacked Yes | 45c | 1,832$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…4e02backed Yes | 1c | 1,736$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…7750backed Yes | 25c | 1,681$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 69c | 1,528$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.17 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 41c | 1,511$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.14 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked No | 60c | 1,482$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 27c | 1,142$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,079$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 18c | 997.35$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.89 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 966.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 8c | 961$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 34c | 960.1$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.28 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…cdc6backed Yes | 3c | 857.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0522…02f4backed No | 65c | 795.93$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 792.28$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.06 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 46c | 751.19$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.01 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 44c | 735.78$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.43 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 12c | 629$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…68e3backed No | 60c | 593.7$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.98 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 576.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed No | 77c | 550$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 58c | 547.27$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.85 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 32c | 527.03$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.76 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 501.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Yes | 22c | 449.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 27c | 442.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.45 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…25ecbacked No | 51c | 412.88$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +223.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…4df7backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 344.76$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 18c | 343.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 76c | 322.03$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7721…49d5backed Yes | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c6…2e08backed No | 66c | 309.1$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedea…a94dbacked Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fa…9cf7backed Yes | 18c | 298$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 25c | 282.61$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 273.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 16c | 273.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 71c | 262.93$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed No | 74c | 237.1$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca3…f766backed Yes | 56c | 229.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…18f6backed Yes | 7c | 224.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 6c | 220.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc91…b906backed Yes | 51c | 217.72$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…c34bbacked Yes | 9c | 215$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 74c | 211.93$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2432…ae39backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8423…b9c1backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 46c | 199.99$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 45c | 191$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.52 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…715abacked No | 60c | 190.18$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…ac66backed No | 77c | 158.35$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +60%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1ce7backed Yes | 46c | 157.34$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9640…eb27backed Yes | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7713backed No | 67c | 149.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…a2ddbacked No | 48c | 141.04$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 138.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe578…9bc8backed No | 80c | 137.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e4…0a7dbacked No | 68c | 137.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5118…f0e4backed No | 80c | 125.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed No | 54c | 125$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b98…e27dbacked Yes | 11c | 124.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed Yes | 18c | 122.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 13c | 120.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed Yes | 46c | 119.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…dcccbacked No | 44c | 116.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…3b91backed Yes | 20c | 113.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…a294backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…424ebacked Yes | 46c | 109.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586f…ce5dbacked No | 46c | 108.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…a076backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3328…ea4cbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…b38bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…8f06backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.