TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$247,426
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$244,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,426 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa446…754ebacked Yes3c10,524$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.033225%8 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc17…63c6backed Yes10c7,100$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c6,975$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.04590%0 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc596…c316backed Yes0c6,877$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-65.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed Yes1c6,865$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c6,612$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.291,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes7c5,501$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.830238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes7c4,315$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.11263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-86.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25e1…6735backed Yes0c4,020$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29f…ce08backed Yes20c3,996$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes8c3,733$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.131637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d4…6e9bbacked Yes1c3,415$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No68c3,201$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.185223.1%12 W · 40 L-10.1wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-55%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed No74c2,713$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.373857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No72c2,702$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.924856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0691…c72fbacked Yes1c2,261$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b3…9989backed Yes4c2,100$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84684.4%3 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid+123.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bdc…e8b0backed Yes2c2,098$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes11c1,950$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.9132023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49a…36ccbacked Yes45c1,832$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15f7…4e02backed Yes1c1,736$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc92c…7750backed Yes25c1,681$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No69c1,528$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.172850%14 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes41c1,511$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.144134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked No60c1,482$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.653100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes27c1,142$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.562425%6 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes2c1,079$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.735617.9%10 W · 46 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb86e…8cfdbacked Yes40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+59.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes18c997.35$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.894528.9%13 W · 32 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+121.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c966.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.189312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes8c961$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.123312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-60.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes34c960.1$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.287150.7%36 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d59…cdc6backed Yes3c857.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32015556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0522…02f4backed No65c795.93$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes24c792.28$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.0624126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes46c751.19$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.011931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.516516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes44c735.78$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.435844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes12c629$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.63850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b22…68e3backed No60c593.7$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.982437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c576.44$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7926413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed No77c550$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No58c547.27$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.856041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes32c527.03$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7611615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes4c501.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.311216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd54…3ffebacked Yes22c449.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes27c442.56$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.453441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefc6…25ecbacked No51c412.88$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.363100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+223.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x052a…4df7backed No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c344.76$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.730839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed Yes18c343.67$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.861127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No76c322.03$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.43161.3%19 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+9.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7721…49d5backed Yes3c312.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28c6…2e08backed No66c309.1$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.563100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+74.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedea…a94dbacked Yes10c299.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fa…9cf7backed Yes18c298$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes25c282.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.442429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes5c273.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9221015.7%33 W · 177 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed Yes16c273.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.972924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed No71c262.93$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.251573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+68.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x941e…9775backed No74c237.1$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.534139%16 W · 25 L-8.1wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-36.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x9ca3…f766backed Yes56c229.36$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…18f6backed Yes7c224.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f16…7013backed Yes6c220.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.99419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+85.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc91…b906backed Yes51c217.72$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5163…c34bbacked Yes9c215$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No74c211.93$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.27860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2432…ae39backed Yes48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8423…b9c1backed Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No46c199.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes45c191$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.524520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked No60c190.18$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.273435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7b…ac66backed No77c158.35$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.09560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+60%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11c9…1ce7backed Yes46c157.34$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9640…eb27backed Yes12c150$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cc…7713backed No67c149.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.81258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e60…a2ddbacked No48c141.04$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.041428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes31c138.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2930718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe578…9bc8backed No80c137.64$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e4…0a7dbacked No68c137.15$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.06785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+113.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5118…f0e4backed No80c125.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.372100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e31…4716backed No54c125$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+144.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b98…e27dbacked Yes11c124.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-78.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b6…3158backed Yes18c122.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.37728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…5ceabacked Yes13c120.5$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.674856.3%27 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x617a…b4f1backed Yes46c119.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.66742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe704…dcccbacked No44c116.22$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.08837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7a…3b91backed Yes20c113.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab8…a294backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+135.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a37…424ebacked Yes46c109.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x586f…ce5dbacked No46c108.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.052161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ae4…a076backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3328…ea4cbacked Yes48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ea…b38bbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…8f06backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.