Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb952b9ef23a6809100a9aa292dccc3a6cf22d0bf0081a6aba2195255070b4a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $181,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,332$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92c…7750backed Yes | 5c | 14,339$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…63c6backed Yes | 7c | 8,000$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…ce08backed Yes | 4c | 7,886$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 5c | 6,215$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.18 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 0c | 4,733$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,721$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,278$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5694…6052backed Yes | 0c | 3,404$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 3,233$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,620$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f0a…2f68backed Yes | 1c | 1,359$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…dce1backed Yes | 4c | 1,248$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7796…f67cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,230$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,094$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…d65bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,092$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 1,063$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed Yes | 4c | 903.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…bc47backed Yes | 5c | 900$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 10c | 726.21$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 671$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 648.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…1566backed Yes | 3c | 617.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c0…1ce7backed Yes | 6c | 589.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 556.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ba…d0cbbacked Yes | 2c | 548.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 13c | 545.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 3c | 522.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 479.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 460.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…c8d0backed Yes | 10c | 410.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 10c | 393.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 12c | 389.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed Yes | 3c | 380$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…d488backed Yes | 14c | 369.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 7c | 323.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2a…e4d6backed Yes | 8c | 267$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12b…5210backed Yes | 14c | 253.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…f62abacked Yes | 12c | 248.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…5ed8backed Yes | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed Yes | 8c | 207.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 15c | 184.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 11c | 126.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…2892backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…855dbacked Yes | 10c | 120.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 9c | 116$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7866…8645backed Yes | 11c | 114.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00f3…9416backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January?this page
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?Yes won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January?No won
- Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.